LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; CESifo, Munich, Germany.
J Health Econ. 2021 Jan;75:102398. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102398. Epub 2020 Nov 23.
This paper empirically investigates the long-run effects of major health improvements on income growth in the United States. To isolate exogenous changes in health, the econometric model uses quasi-experimental variation in cardiovascular disease mortality across states over time. Based on data for the white population, the results show that there is a causal link between health and income per person, and they provide novel evidence that health dynamics shape life-cycle incomes. Life-cycle income profiles slope more strongly at the beginning and at the end of work life in 2000 than in 1960, indicating that age becomes a more prominent determinant of income dynamics over this period. The channels for this transformation include better health, higher educational attainment, and changing labor supply.
本文通过实证研究，考察了美国重大健康改善对收入增长的长期影响。为了将健康方面的外生变化分离出来，该计量经济学模型利用了各州心血管疾病死亡率随时间的准实验性变化。基于白人人口的数据，研究结果表明健康与人均收入之间存在因果关系，并提供了新的证据表明健康动态塑造了生命周期收入。与 1960 年相比，2000 年的生命周期收入曲线在工作生涯的开始和结束处斜率更大，这表明年龄在这一时期成为收入动态的一个更为突出的决定因素。这种转变的渠道包括更好的健康状况、更高的教育程度和劳动力供应的变化。
