Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 3135 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3135, United States.
Accid Anal Prev. 2021 Feb;150:105896. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105896. Epub 2020 Dec 4.
Estimating the speed-crash relationship has long been a focus area of interest in roadway safety analysis. Because of many confounding factors that may influence both speeds and crashes, the relationship cannot be appropriately established without considering the corresponding roadway contexts and accounting for their effects on speeds and crashes. This paper investigates the speed-crash relationship for city streets by jointly modeling speed, roadway characteristics, and crashes using a path analysis approach that has been recently introduced into safety analysis while incorporating a wide range of roadway and traffic related variables and additional speed measures. The results from the coherent path analysis identified multiple speed measures of interest that have a statistically significant association with crashes as well as having intuitive and useful interpretation. The results also supported a positive relationship between speed variability and crash occurrence (i.e., larger spread/variability in operational speed is associated with more crashes).
长期以来，估计速度-碰撞关系一直是道路安全分析的重点关注领域。由于许多可能同时影响速度和碰撞的混杂因素，如果不考虑相应的道路环境并考虑其对速度和碰撞的影响，就无法正确建立这种关系。本文通过联合使用路径分析方法来研究城市街道的速度-碰撞关系，该方法最近已被引入安全分析中，同时考虑了广泛的道路和交通相关变量以及其他速度度量。连贯路径分析的结果确定了多个感兴趣的速度度量，这些速度度量与碰撞具有统计学上的显著关联，并且具有直观和有用的解释。结果还支持速度可变性与碰撞发生之间的正相关关系（即，操作速度的更大变化与更多碰撞相关）。
