Coral community life histories and population dynamics driven by seascape bathymetry and temperature variability.

Temperature variability, habitat, coral communities, and fishing intensity are important factors influencing coral responses to climate change. Consequently, chronic and acute sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and their interactions with habitat and fishing were studied along the East African coast (~400km) by evaluating changes over a ~25-year period in two major reef habitats-island and fringing reefs. These habitats had similar mean and standard deviation temperature measurements but differed in that islands had lower ocean heights and flatter and less right-skewed temperature distributions than fringing reefs. These patterns arise because islands are exposed to deep offshore water passing through deep channels while being protected from the open ocean storms and the strong inter-annual current temperature variability. Within these two seascapes, coral communities are shaped by population responses to the variable temperature distributions as determined by the taxa's associations with the competitive-stress-ruderal (CSR) life history groups. For example, competitive taxa were more abundant where temperature distributions were flat and lacked frequent warm water anomalies. In contrast, ruderal, weedy, and generalist taxa were more common where temperature distributions were centralized, standard deviations high, and warm water anomalies more frequent. Finally, stress-resistant taxa were more common in reefs with high temperature skew but flatter temperature distributions. The rare 1998 thermal anomaly impacted and disturbed the ruderal and stressed reef more than the competitive communities. Ruderal became more similar to stressed communities while the stressed community moved further from the mean before recovering towards the competitive community. Competitive taxa were more common on islands and the deeper fringing reef sites while ruderal were dominant in shallow fringing reef lagoons. Over time, islands were less disturbed than fringing reefs and maintained the highest coral cover, numbers of taxa, and most competitive or space-occupying taxa. However, some island reefs with a history of dynamite fishing aligned with the stress-resistant communities over the full study period. Compared to the in situ SST gauges at the study site, temperature proxies with global coverage were often good at estimating mean and standard deviations of the SSTs but much poorer at estimating the shape of the temperature distributions that reflect chronic and acute stress, as reflected by kurtosis and skewness metrics. Given that these stress variables were critical for understanding the impacts of rare climate disturbances, global climate models that use mean conditions are likely to be poor predictors of future impacts on corals, particularly their species and life history composition. Better predictions should be possible if appropriate chronic and acute stress metrics and their proxies are identified and used.