Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Bursa Technical University, Bursa, 16330, Turkey.
Vias Institute, Haachtsesteenweg 1405, 1130, Brussels, Belgium.
Accid Anal Prev. 2021 Feb;150:105902. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105902. Epub 2020 Dec 8.
The level of safety for cyclists at roundabouts may vary according to national differences not only in the design itself but also sociodemographic, cyclist and driver behaviour as well as environmental factors. This paper investigates the national influence on cyclist casualty severity at roundabouts by comparing the United Kingdom (using Northumbria as a representative sample) and Belgium. The data included speed limits, socio-demographic characteristics, environmental conditions and driver/cyclist behaviour-related contributory factors. First, a logistic regression analysis for the UK data, including 864 cyclist casualties, was carried out. Increasing the speed limit by ten units (for example 30mph to 40mph) increased the probability of a cyclist being killed or seriously injured by 10%. A cyclist casualty was more than three times more likely to be killed or seriously injured (the odds ratio is 3.02) where sudden braking was recorded as a contributory factor. Second, a separate logistic regression analysis for Belgium was conducted. Cyclists ignoring the priority at roundabouts increased the probability of a fatal or seriously injured collisions (the odds ratio is 2.71). Comparing the individual analysis for both countries, the influence of cyclist age was consistent. Each one-year increase in cyclist age increases chance of being killed or seriously injured as opposed to not being killed or seriously injured by 2 % (odds ratio is 1.02) in both UK and Belgium. A final comparative analysis was applied considering proxy variables for both countries. Three-way chi-square tests of independence showed that all non-behavioural variables (i.e. sociodemographic characteristics, speed limit, and environmental conditions) were found to be statistically different between UK and Belgium for both slight and killed and seriously injured casualties. This suggests that driver/cyclist interaction and behaviour in the two countries is generally similar whilst speed limits, the sociodemographic characteristics of cyclists and environmental conditions are specific for each country. The third part of the logistic regression analysis suggested that the country residual was highly statistically significant. This indicates that there are some statistically significant differences with respect to the characteristics of the two regional datasets used in the analysis.
自行车在环岛的安全水平可能因国家的不同而有所差异，这不仅体现在设计本身，还体现在社会人口统计学、骑车人和司机的行为以及环境因素上。本文通过比较英国（以北安普敦郡为代表样本）和比利时，研究了国家对环岛自行车事故严重程度的影响。数据包括速度限制、社会人口统计学特征、环境条件以及与司机/骑车人行为相关的促成因素。首先，对包括 864 名自行车事故受害者的英国数据进行了逻辑回归分析。速度限制提高 10 个单位（例如从 30 英里/小时提高到 40 英里/小时）会使自行车事故受害者死亡或重伤的概率增加 10%。如果记录到突然刹车是促成因素，则自行车事故受害者死亡或重伤的可能性会增加三倍以上（比值比为 3.02）。其次，对比利时进行了单独的逻辑回归分析。在环岛处忽略优先权的自行车骑行者增加了致命或重伤碰撞的概率（比值比为 2.71）。比较两国的个别分析结果，发现自行车骑行者年龄的影响是一致的。在英国和比利时，自行车骑行者年龄每增加一岁，死亡或重伤的几率就会增加 2%（比值比为 1.02），而不是没有死亡或重伤。最后，考虑到两国的替代变量，进行了比较分析。独立性三向卡方检验表明，在轻度和致命重伤事故中，英国和比利时的所有非行为变量（即社会人口统计学特征、速度限制和环境条件）都存在统计学差异。这表明，两国的司机/骑车人之间的互动和行为大致相似，而速度限制、骑车人的社会人口统计学特征和环境条件则因国家而异。逻辑回归分析的第三部分表明，国家残差具有高度统计学意义。这表明，在分析中使用的两个区域数据集的特征存在一些具有统计学意义的差异。
