Southwest Biological Science Center, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 2255 N. Gemini Drive, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86001, USA.
Larval Fish Laboratory, Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, 1474 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA.
Ecol Appl. 2021 Mar;31(2):e02279. doi: 10.1002/eap.2279. Epub 2021 Feb 9.
Managing the world's freshwater supply to meet societal and environmental needs in a changing climate is one of the biggest challenges for the 21st century. Dams provide water security; however, the allocation of dwindling water supply among reservoirs could exacerbate or ameliorate the effects of climate change on aquatic communities. Here, we show that the relative sensitivity of river thermal regimes to direct impacts of climate change and societal decisions concerning water storage vary substantially throughout a river basin. In the absence of interspecific interactions, future Colorado River temperatures would appear to benefit both endemic and nonnative fish species. However, endemic species are already declining or extirpated in locations where their ranges overlap with warmwater nonnatives and changes in water storage may lead to warming in some of the coolest portions of the river basin, facilitating further nonnative expansion. Integrating environmental considerations into ongoing water storage negotiations may lead to better resource outcomes than mitigating nonnative species impacts after the fact.
在气候变化的背景下，管理全球淡水资源以满足社会和环境需求，是 21 世纪面临的最大挑战之一。水坝提供了水安全；然而，在水库之间分配日益减少的供水可能会加剧或缓解气候变化对水生生物群落的影响。在这里，我们表明，河流热状况对气候变化直接影响和有关储水的社会决策的相对敏感性在整个流域有很大差异。在没有种间相互作用的情况下，未来科罗拉多河的温度似乎将有利于本地和非本地鱼类物种。然而，在其分布范围与温水非本地物种重叠的地方，本地物种已经在减少或灭绝，而水储存的变化可能导致流域内一些最凉爽地区的升温，从而促进非本地物种的进一步扩张。将环境考虑因素纳入正在进行的水储存谈判中，可能会比在事后缓解非本地物种的影响带来更好的资源结果。
