Influential factors of out of pocket payments for health care in Iran: A foresight approach using the cross impact analysis.

OBJECTIVE

To identify and explain the interactions and network of the relationship between influential factors of out-ofpocket payments for health services.

METHODS

This futures study was conducted in 2015 in Iran, and comprised experts of various sectors. At first, key factors and driven forces of out-of-pocket payments were detected; then, the factors were collected in the form of a square-matrix questionnaire; and completed based on impact of each factor on the occurrence probability of others, with collective agreement, so the role of any factor in forecasting out-of-pocket status in future was identified by cross-impact analysis. MicMac software was used for data analysis.

RESULTS

As many as 35 factors were identified which affected out-of pocket payments. The factors were categorised in four main roles, i.e. influencing, two-sided, dependent and independent. Some economic factors which had a higher impact on other system factors were influencing factors; they were the most critical components because the system changes were dependent on them. In contrast, some factors related to organising the health system were depending factors and were affected by the least changes in other factors. There are 10 factors in this group. These factors were mainly related to the utilisation of health services by a special look to the part of delivery (public or private).

CONCLUSIONS

Policymakers should consider interactions and influencing network of out-of-pocket payment factors and should understand how a change in one factor can have a series of changes.