Replacement of oyster reefs by mangroves: Unexpected climate-driven ecosystem shifts.

Increases in minimum air temperatures have facilitated transitions of salt marshes to mangroves along coastlines in the southeastern United States. Numerous studies have documented mangrove expansion into salt marshes; however, a present-day conversion of oyster reefs to mangrove islands has not been documented. Using aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite imagery, we determined percent cover and number of mangrove patches on oyster reefs in Mosquito Lagoon, FL, USA over 74 years (1943-2017) by digitizing oyster reef and "mangrove on oyster reef" areas. Live oyster reefs present in 1943 were tracked through time and the mangrove area on every reef calculated for seven time periods. There was a 103% increase in mangrove cover on live oyster reefs from 1943 (6.6%) to 2017 (13.4%). Between 1943 and 1984, the cover remained consistent (~7%), while between 1984 and 2017, mangrove cover increased rapidly with a 6% year increase in mangrove area on oyster reefs (198% increase). In 1943, 8.7% of individual reefs had at least one mangrove patch on them; by 2017, 21.8% of reefs did. Site visits found at least one mature Avicennia germinans on each tracked mangrove reef, with large numbers of smaller Rhizophora mangle, suggesting the post-1984 mangrove increases were the result of increased R. mangle recruitment and survival. Escalation in the coverage and number of mangrove stands on oyster reefs coincided with a period that lacked extreme freeze events. The time since a temperature of ≤-6.6°C (A. germinans mortality threshold) and ≤-4°C (R. mangle mortality threshold) were significantly correlated with the increased ratio of mangrove area:oyster area, total mangrove area, and number of mangrove patches, with greater variation explained by time since ≤ -4°C. The lack of freezes could lead globally to an ecosystem shift of intertidal oyster reefs to mangrove islands near poleward mangrove range limits.