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新冠肺炎疫情对未来出生率的潜在影响。

Potential Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Future Birth Rate.

机构信息

Department of Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Department of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chattogram, Bangladesh.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2020 Dec 10;8:578438. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.578438. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Here, we examine the potential effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future birth rates. This highly contagious disease originated in China, and rapidly spread worldwide, leading to extensive lockdown policies being implemented globally with the aim of containing the infection rates and its serious attendant consequences. Based on previous extant literature, this paper overviews the potential demographic consequences of the current progressively widespread epidemic on conception and fertility as driven by the data obtained during similar prior incidents. In general, epidemics manifest a common pattern as far as their impact on population, which is remarkably similar to natural disasters, i.e., a steep decline in birth rates followed by gradual increases and then followed by a baby boom. Additionally, we have also depicted how economic conditions, mental health, fear, and mortality may also influence future birth rates.

摘要

在这里,我们研究了 COVID-19 大流行对未来出生率的潜在影响。这种高传染性疾病起源于中国,迅速在全球范围内传播,导致全球广泛实施了广泛的封锁政策,旨在控制感染率及其严重的伴随后果。基于以前的文献,本文综述了当前这种逐渐广泛传播的流行病对受孕和生育能力的潜在人口学后果,这是由类似先前事件中获得的数据驱动的。一般来说,流行病对人口的影响表现出一种共同的模式,与自然灾害非常相似,即出生率急剧下降,随后逐渐增加,然后出现婴儿潮。此外,我们还描述了经济状况、心理健康、恐惧和死亡率如何可能影响未来的出生率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9b3c/7758229/5c5e33cbb428/fpubh-08-578438-g0001.jpg

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