Colombe B W, Juster R P, Salvatierra O, Garovoy M R
Immunogenetics and Transplantation Laboratory, University of California School of Medicine, San Francisco 94143.
Transplantation. 1988 Jan;45(1):101-5. doi: 10.1097/00007890-198801000-00023.
Using linear logistic regression, six factors were identified as important predictors of risk of DST sensitization in a group of 195 patients. Factors increasing the risk were: percent panel reactive antibody (PRA), previous transplants, and pregnancy; those decreasing the risk were HLA antigens matched, third-party blood transfusions, and Imuran administration. From this analysis, the magnitude of the effect of each factor on the risk of sensitization was obtained. An equation was then obtained that can be used to compute an estimated probability of sensitization (PS) for each patient. As a test of predictive ability of the model, the PS was calculated for 66 patients in an independent patient group. These observations were arranged according to the estimated probability and then divided into intervals of risk. Overall, for each interval, a very high level of agreement was found between the predicted and actual number of sensitized patients. A total of 16.13 patients were predicted to become sensitized and 17 actually did.
使用线性逻辑回归，在一组195名患者中确定了六个因素是DST致敏风险的重要预测指标。增加风险的因素有：群体反应性抗体百分比（PRA）、既往移植和妊娠；降低风险的因素有：HLA抗原匹配、第三方输血和使用硫唑嘌呤。通过该分析，得出了每个因素对致敏风险影响的大小。然后得到一个方程，可用于计算每位患者的致敏估计概率（PS）。作为对该模型预测能力的检验，为一个独立患者组中的66名患者计算了PS。这些观察结果根据估计概率进行排列，然后分为风险区间。总体而言，对于每个区间，预测的致敏患者数量与实际数量之间存在非常高的一致性。预计共有16.13名患者会致敏，实际有17名患者致敏。
