Chen Y W, Sheng K X, Yao X, Xu C P, Qu L H, Guo Q, Chen J H, Zhang P
Kidney Disease Center, the First Affiliated Hospital, Medical College of Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310006, ChinaChen youwei is working on the Department of Nephrology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Jiaxing Medical College, Jiaxing, Zhejiang 314000, China.
Zhonghua Nei Ke Za Zhi. 2021 Jan 1;60(1):35-40. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112138-20200608-00567.
To retrospectively analyze the early mortality and related risk factors in adult patients with maintenance hemodialysis (MHD). Adult MHD patients from 2008 to 2018 were enrolled and divided into training data group and validation data group. In training data group, multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of early death within 120 days after hemodialysis and establish a prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to evaluate the prediction ability of the model. A total of 4 885 patients were included. The cumulative mortality within 120 days was 20.97/100 person years, and that within 365 days was 12.25/100 person years. A total of 3 603 patients in the training data group were analyzed. The following risk factors were correlated with early mortality (all <0.05), including age at start of dialysis over 60 years old (=1.792), non-chronic glomerulonephritis (=2.214), cardio-cerebrovascular disease (=2.695), plasma albumin less than 35 g/L (=1.358), platelet count less than 120×10/L (=2.194), serum creatinine less than 600 μmol/L (=1.652), blood urea nitrogen over 30 mmol/L (=1.887), blood phosphorus less than 1.13 mmol/L (=1.783), pulse pressure over 55 mmHg(1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) (=1.656), low density lipoprotein less than 1.5 mmol/L (=1.873), and blood calcium over 2.5 mmol/L (=1.876). Risk prediction model was established. The other 1 282 cases in the validation data group were verified. The area under ROC curve was 0.810, with sensitivity 85.7%, and specificity 62.5%. The mortality rate of adult MHD patients within 120 days after dialysis is high. The established prediction model can effectively predict the risk of early death.
回顾性分析维持性血液透析(MHD)成年患者的早期死亡率及相关危险因素。纳入2008年至2018年的成年MHD患者,并分为训练数据组和验证数据组。在训练数据组中,采用多因素logistic回归分析血液透析后120天内早期死亡的危险因素,并建立预测模型。应用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型的预测能力。共纳入4885例患者。120天内的累积死亡率为20.97/100人年,365天内为12.25/100人年。对训练数据组中的3603例患者进行分析。以下危险因素与早期死亡率相关(均P<0.05),包括透析起始年龄>60岁(OR=1.792)、非慢性肾小球肾炎(OR=2.214)、心脑血管疾病(OR=2.695)、血浆白蛋白<35 g/L(OR=1.358)、血小板计数<120×10⁹/L(OR=2.194)、血清肌酐<600 μmol/L(OR=1.652)、血尿素氮>30 mmol/L(OR=1.887)、血磷<1.13 mmol/L(OR=1.783)、脉压>55 mmHg(1 mmHg=0.133 kPa)(OR=1.656)、低密度脂蛋白<1.5 mmol/L(OR=1.873)以及血钙>2.5 mmol/L(OR=1.876)。建立了风险预测模型。对验证数据组中的另外1282例病例进行验证。ROC曲线下面积为0.810,灵敏度为85.7%,特异度为62.5%。MHD成年患者透析后120天内死亡率较高。所建立的预测模型可有效预测早期死亡风险。