Khalilpourazari Soheyl, Hashemi Doulabi Hossein
Department of Mechanical, Industrial and Aerospace Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada.
Interuniversity Research Centre on Enterprise Networks, Logistics and Transportation (CIRRELT), Montreal, Canada.
Ann Oper Res. 2022;312(2):1261-1305. doi: 10.1007/s10479-020-03871-7. Epub 2021 Jan 3.
World Health Organization (WHO) stated COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020. Since then, 26,795,847 cases have been reported worldwide, and 878,963 lost their lives due to the illness by September 3, 2020. Prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic will enable policymakers to optimize the use of healthcare system capacity and resource allocation to minimize the fatality rate. In this research, we design a novel hybrid reinforcement learning-based algorithm capable of solving complex optimization problems. We apply our algorithm to several well-known benchmarks and show that the proposed methodology provides quality solutions for most complex benchmarks. Besides, we show the dominance of the offered method over state-of-the-art methods through several measures. Moreover, to demonstrate the suggested method's efficiency in optimizing real-world problems, we implement our approach to the most recent data from Quebec, Canada, to predict the COVID-19 outbreak. Our algorithm, combined with the most recent mathematical model for COVID-19 pandemic prediction, accurately reflected the future trend of the pandemic with a mean square error of 6.29E-06. Furthermore, we generate several scenarios for deepening our insight into pandemic growth. We determine essential factors and deliver various managerial insights to help policymakers making decisions regarding future social measures.
世界卫生组织(WHO)于2020年3月宣布新冠疫情为大流行病。自那时起,截至2020年9月3日,全球已报告26795847例病例,878963人因病死亡。对新冠疫情的预测将使政策制定者能够优化医疗系统能力的利用和资源分配,以降低死亡率。在本研究中,我们设计了一种基于混合强化学习的新型算法,能够解决复杂的优化问题。我们将我们的算法应用于几个著名的基准测试,并表明所提出的方法为大多数复杂基准测试提供了高质量的解决方案。此外,我们通过多种指标展示了所提供方法相对于现有方法的优势。此外,为了证明所建议方法在优化实际问题方面的效率,我们将我们的方法应用于加拿大魁北克省的最新数据,以预测新冠疫情的爆发。我们的算法与最新的新冠疫情预测数学模型相结合,以6.29E-06的均方误差准确反映了疫情的未来趋势。此外,我们生成了几种情景以加深我们对疫情增长的理解。我们确定了关键因素,并提供了各种管理见解,以帮助政策制定者就未来的社会措施做出决策。