U.S. Geological Survey, New England Water Science Center, Pembroke, New Hampshire 03275, United States.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway, NE, Atlanta, Georgia 30341, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2021 Feb 2;55(3):1822-1831. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.9b05835. Epub 2021 Jan 13.
This study assesses the potential impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells by using a previously developed statistical model that predicts the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations (>10 μg per liter) in water from domestic wells located in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The application of the model to simulate drought conditions used systematically reduced precipitation and recharge values. The drought conditions resulted in higher probabilities of elevated arsenic throughout most of the CONUS. While the increase in the probability of elevated arsenic was generally less than 10% at any one location, when considered over the entire CONUS, the increase has considerable public health implications. The population exposed to elevated arsenic from domestic wells was estimated to increase from approximately 2.7 million to 4.1 million people during drought. The model was also run using total annual precipitation and groundwater recharge values from the year 2012 when drought existed over a large extent of the CONUS. This simulation provided a method for comparing the duration of drought to changes in the predicted probability of high arsenic in domestic wells. These results suggest that the probability of exposure to arsenic concentrations greater than 10 μg per liter increases with increasing duration of drought. These findings indicate that drought has a potentially adverse impact on the arsenic hazard from domestic wells throughout the CONUS.
本研究通过使用先前开发的统计模型评估干旱对私人住宅水井中砷暴露的潜在影响，该模型预测了美国本土（CONUS）地区住宅水井中砷浓度升高（>10μg/L）的概率。该模型应用于模拟干旱条件，系统地降低了降水和补给值。干旱条件导致 CONUS 大部分地区砷浓度升高的概率增加。虽然在任何一个地点，砷浓度升高的概率增加通常都小于 10%，但考虑到整个 CONUS，这种增加具有相当大的公共卫生意义。据估计，在干旱期间，因住宅水井中砷含量升高而暴露的人口将从约 270 万人增加到 410 万人。该模型还使用了 2012 年全年降水和地下水补给值进行了运行，当时 CONUS 大部分地区都存在干旱。这种模拟提供了一种方法，可以比较干旱持续时间和预测住宅水井中高砷含量的概率变化。这些结果表明，暴露于浓度大于 10μg/L 的砷的概率随着干旱持续时间的增加而增加。这些发现表明，干旱对 CONUS 地区住宅水井中的砷危害具有潜在的不利影响。
