Evaluating frailty may complement APACHE II in estimating mortality in elderly patients admitted to the ICU after digestive surgery.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze whether frailty can improve the prediction of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU after digestive surgery.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational, 6-month follow-up study of a cohort of patients admitted to the ICU between June 1, 2018, and June 1, 2019.

SETTING

Surgical ICU of a third level hospital.

PATIENTS

Series of successive patients older than 70 years who were admitted to the ICU immediately after a surgical intervention on the digestive system. 92 patients were included and 2 were excluded due to loss of follow-up at 6 months.

INTERVENTIONS

Upon admission to the ICU, severity and prognosis were assessed by APACHE II, and fragility by the Clinical Frailty Scale and the modified Frailty Index.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

ICU, in-hospital and 6-month mortality.

RESULTS

The model that best predicts mortality in the ICU is the APACHE II, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.89 and a good calibration. The model that combines APACHE II and Clinical Frailty Scale is the one that best predicts in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.82), significantly improving the prediction of isolated APACHE II (AUC: 0.78; Integrated Discrimination Index: 0.04). Frailty is a predictor of mortality at 6 months, being the model that combines Clinical Frailty Scale and Frailty Index the one that has shown the greatest discrimination (AUC: 0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty can complement APACHE II by improving its prediction of hospital mortality. Furthermore, it offers a good prediction of mortality 6 months after surgery. For mortality in ICU, frailty loses its predictive power, whereas isolated APACHE II shows excellent predictive capacity.