Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, Valencia, 46022, Spain.
Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, Valencia, 46022, Spain.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Mar 15;282:111739. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111739. Epub 2021 Jan 16.
Coastal ecosystems are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change, due to their location at the land-sea interface. In coastal waters, the nitrogen cycle can be significantly altered by rising temperatures and other factors derived from climate change, affecting phytoplankton and higher trophic levels. This research analyzes the effect of meteorological variables on dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species in coastal inshore waters of a Northwestern Mediterranean region under climate change. We built simple mathematical schemes based on artificial neural networks (ANN), trained with field data. Then, we used regional climatic projections for the Spanish Mediterranean coast to provide inputs to the trained ANNs, and thus, allowing the estimation of future DIN trends throughout the 21st century. The results obtained indicate that nitrite and nitrate concentrations are expected to decrease mainly due to rising temperatures and decreasing continental inputs. Major changes are projected for the winter season, driven by a rise in minimum temperatures which decrease the nitrite and nitrate peaks observed at low temperatures. Ammonium concentrations are not expected to undergo a significant annual trend but may either increase or decrease during some months. These results entail a preliminary simplified approach to estimate the impact of meteorological changes on DIN concentrations in coastal waters under climate change.
沿海生态系统由于位于陆海交界处，因此最容易受到气候变化的影响。在沿海水域，氮循环会因气温上升和气候变化带来的其他因素而发生显著变化，从而影响浮游植物和更高营养级。本研究分析了在气候变化背景下，西北地中海地区近岸海域的气象变量对溶解无机氮（DIN）物种的影响。我们基于人工神经网络（ANN）构建了简单的数学方案，并使用现场数据进行了训练。然后，我们使用西班牙地中海沿岸的区域气候预测作为输入，为经过训练的 ANN 提供数据，从而可以估计整个 21 世纪 DIN 的未来趋势。研究结果表明，由于气温升高和大陆输入减少，亚硝酸盐和硝酸盐的浓度预计将下降。由于最低温度升高，冬季的变化最大，这会降低低温时观察到的亚硝酸盐和硝酸盐峰值。预计铵浓度不会出现明显的年度趋势，但在某些月份可能会增加或减少。这些结果提供了一种初步的简化方法，可以估算气候变化下沿海海域 DIN 浓度受气象变化影响的情况。
