Department of Geography, University of Jiroft, Kerman, Iran.
Department of Ecological Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Kerman, Iran.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jun;28(21):27283-27298. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-12522-8. Epub 2021 Jan 28.
Monitoring changes in natural ecosystems is considered essential to natural resource management. Despite the global importance of the lakes' quality monitoring, there is currently a research gap in the simultaneous predictive modeling of lakes' land-use changes and ecosystem measurements. In the present study for projecting the water bodies of lakes and their surrounding ecosystems, the land-use changes and the landscape analysis of different periods, i.e., 1987, 2002, 2018, and 2030, are studied using remote sensing data and various metrics. The trend of land-use and landscape changes is projected for 2030. The results indicate significant degradation of rangelands and forests due to the conversion to agriculture and construction and the declining trend of lakes' water body and their transformation to salt lake and salt lands. The increase of agricultural lands and the overuse of groundwater wells upstream of the lakes could be one of the reasons for this decline. Decreasing the lakes' water body and subsequently increasing salt lands are considered a severe threat to human health and the ecosystem services of the lakes. Besides, the dust generated by salt lands could also decrease crop yield in the study area.
监测自然生态系统的变化被认为是自然资源管理的重要组成部分。尽管湖泊水质监测具有全球重要性，但目前在湖泊土地利用变化和生态系统测量的同时预测建模方面仍存在研究空白。在本研究中，我们使用遥感数据和各种指标研究了湖泊及其周围生态系统的水体、不同时期（即 1987 年、2002 年、2018 年和 2030 年）的土地利用变化和景观分析，预测了 2030 年的土地利用和景观变化趋势。结果表明，由于农业和建筑用地的转换以及湖泊水体的减少和向盐湖和盐地的转化，牧场和森林严重退化。湖泊上游农业用地的增加和地下水井的过度开采可能是导致这种下降的原因之一。湖泊水体减少，随后盐地增加，被认为是对人类健康和湖泊生态系统服务的严重威胁。此外，盐地产生的灰尘也可能会降低研究区域的作物产量。
