Predicting the effectiveness of treatment for pedophilia.

Assessment of progress in a treatment program for pedophiles and the prediction of risk of future offenses are based upon change along four parameters: decreased objective sexual arousal to child stimuli based on negative conditioning and penile tumescence monitoring, decreased emotional congruence with children, improvement in meaningful adult relationships, and effective therapy for disinhibiting factors. The latter three are measured by rating scales completed by both patients and staff. Although statistical analysis of recidivism is in progress, it may not reflect the true frequency of reoffenses. The ability to predict successful treatment is still limited to theoretical and subjective indices.