NOAA, National Ocean Service, Seattle, WA, USA.
NOAA, National Ocean Service, Seattle, WA, USA.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2021 Mar;164:112041. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112041. Epub 2021 Jan 28.
In the event of an oil spill, emergency responders must quickly deploy cleanup and protection equipment using guidance provided by a forecast trajectory. Forecasting the location of the surface oil over time is standard practice; however, current performance metrics used for assessing the quality of the spill forecast lack both an appropriate numerical model accuracy score and specification of the expected spatial resolution limit for useful forecast information. This paper adapts the Fractions Skill Score method, commonly used in weather forecasting, to oil forecasting. A subset of satellite images and trajectory forecasts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill are used as an example of the method.
如果发生石油泄漏，应急响应人员必须根据预测轨迹提供的指导迅速部署清理和保护设备。随着时间的推移，预测海面浮油的位置是标准做法；然而，目前用于评估溢油预测质量的性能指标既缺乏适当的数值模型精度评分，也没有指定有用预测信息的预期空间分辨率极限。本文采用了广泛应用于天气预报的分数技能评分方法来进行石油预测。作为该方法的一个示例，使用了深水地平线石油泄漏的卫星图像子集和轨迹预测。
