Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, 117543, Singapore.
School of Geography, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Apr 15;284:112032. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112032. Epub 2021 Feb 2.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encourage nations to substantially increase food production to achieve zero hunger (SDG 2) while preserving life on land (SDG 15). A key question is how to reconcile these potentially competing goals spatially. We use integer linear programming to develop an 'integrated land use planning framework' that identifies the optimal allocation of 17 crops under different hypothetical conservation targets while meeting agricultural demands by 2030. Intensifying existing cropland to maximum yield before allocating new cropland would reduce land requirement by 43% versus cropland expansion without intensification. Even with yield gap closure, tropical and sub-tropical crops still require expansion, primarily allocated to Venezuela, eastern Brazil, Congo Basin, Myanmar and Indonesia. Enforcement of protected areas, via avoiding conversion in 75% of Key Biodiversity Areas and 65% of intact areas, is vital to attain biodiversity targets but bears large opportunity costs, with agricultural rents dropping from $4.1 to $2.8 trillion. Although nationally constrained forest conservation efforts would earn 9% less agricultural rents compared to globally coordinated conservation solutions, they were also able to reduce intact habitat and forest loss (43% and 35% reduction). Our results demonstrate that careful choice of the allocation of future cropland expansion, could dramatically reduce-but not eliminate-the tradeoffs between the SDGs for food production and land biodiversity conservation.
可持续发展目标（SDGs）鼓励各国大幅增加粮食产量，以实现零饥饿（SDG2），同时保护陆地生物多样性（SDG15）。一个关键问题是如何在空间上协调这些潜在的竞争目标。我们使用整数线性规划来制定一个“综合土地利用规划框架”，该框架确定了在不同假设的保护目标下 17 种作物的最佳分配，同时满足 2030 年的农业需求。在分配新耕地之前，将现有耕地提高到最大产量，可将耕地需求减少 43%，而无需进行耕地扩张。即使实现了产量差距的闭合，热带和亚热带作物仍需要扩张，主要分配给委内瑞拉、巴西东部、刚果盆地、缅甸和印度尼西亚。通过避免在关键生物多样性区的 75%和完整区域的 65%进行转化，来执行保护区，对于实现生物多样性目标至关重要，但也带来了巨大的机会成本，农业租金从 4.1 万亿美元降至 2.8 万亿美元。尽管与全球协调的保护解决方案相比，国家限制森林保护的努力可能会减少 9%的农业租金，但也能够减少完整栖息地和森林的损失（分别减少 43%和 35%）。我们的结果表明，未来耕地扩张分配的精心选择，可以显著减少但不能消除粮食生产和土地生物多样性保护之间的可持续发展目标的权衡。
