Kuo Chao-Cheng, Huang Chien-Hao, Chang Ching, Chen Pin-Cheng, Chen Bo-Huan, Chen Wei-Ting, Ho Yu-Pin
Division of Hepatology, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Chang-Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou Medical Center, Taoyuan 333423, Taiwan.
College of Medicine, Chang-Gung University, Taoyuan 333423, Taiwan.
J Pers Med. 2021 Jan 29;11(2):79. doi: 10.3390/jpm11020079.
Patients with liver cirrhosis have a higher risk of developing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Poor prognosis with a high rate of short-term mortality leads to limited opportunities for further liver transplantation. Thus, precise prognostic evaluation of patients with ACLF is necessary before transplant surgery. In this study, a total of one hundred and thirty-five patients with ACLF admitted to the hepato-gastroenterologic intensive care unit (ICU) for intensive monitoring and treatment at Chang-Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH, Linkou, Taiwan) were screened from November 2012 to April 2015 and tracked until April 2017. Three new prognostic scores of ACLF, including CLIF-C ACLF (Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure score), CLIF-C ACLF-D (CLIF-C ACLF Development score), and CLLF-C ACLF (lactate-adjusted CLIF-C ACLF score) were compared. The primary outcome considered was overall mortality. Mortality predictions at 28, 90, 180, and 365 days were also calculated. By area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, the CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF-D scores were superior to CLIF-C ACLF scores in predicting 28-day mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF-D score had the highest AUROC in predicting overall mortality as well as at 90, 180, and 365 days. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF-D scores are significant predictors of outcome in critical patients with liver cirrhosis and ACLF. The CLIF-C ACLF-D score may have a superior predictive power for the prediction of 3-month, 6-month, and one-year mortality.
肝硬化患者发生慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)的风险更高。预后较差且短期死亡率高,导致进一步肝移植的机会有限。因此,在移植手术前对ACLF患者进行精确的预后评估是必要的。在本研究中,2012年11月至2015年4月期间,从长庚纪念医院(台湾林口)的肝胃肠科重症监护病房(ICU)筛选出135例因重症监护和治疗而入院的ACLF患者,并跟踪至2017年4月。比较了ACLF的三个新的预后评分,包括CLIF-C ACLF(慢性肝衰竭联盟慢加急性肝衰竭评分)、CLIF-C ACLF-D(CLIF-C ACLF发展评分)和CLLF-C ACLF(乳酸调整后的CLIF-C ACLF评分)。主要观察指标为总死亡率。还计算了28天、90天、180天和365天的死亡率预测值。通过受试者工作特征曲线(AUROC)下面积分析,CLIF-C ACLF和CLIF-C ACLF-D评分在预测28天死亡率方面优于CLIF-C ACLF评分。CLIF-C ACLF-D评分在预测总死亡率以及90天、180天和365天死亡率方面具有最高的AUROC。总之,我们的研究表明,CLIF-C ACLF和CLIF-C ACLF-D评分是肝硬化和ACLF重症患者预后的重要预测指标。CLIF-C ACLF-D评分在预测3个月、6个月和1年死亡率方面可能具有更高的预测能力。