Colorado Division of Parks and Wildlife, 317 W Prospect Road, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526-2097, USA.
J Wildl Dis. 2020 Oct 1;56(4):781-790. doi: 10.7589/JWD-D-20-00054.
The emergence of chronic wasting disease, an infectious prion disease of multiple deer species, has motivated international calls for sustainable, socially accepted control measures. Here, we describe long-term, spatially replicated relationships in Colorado, US, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) herds that show hunting pressure can modulate apparent epidemic dynamics as reflected by prevalence trends. Across 12 areas in Colorado studied between 2002-18, those with the largest declines in annual hunting license numbers (pressure) showed the largest increases in the proportion of infected adult (≥2-yr-old) male deer killed by hunters (prevalence); prevalence trends were comparatively flat in most areas where license numbers had been maintained or increased. The mean number of licenses issued in the 2 yr prior best explained observed patterns: increasing licenses lowered subsequent risk of harvesting an infected deer, and decreasing licenses increased that risk. Our findings suggest that harvesting mule deer with sufficient hunting pressure might control chronic wasting disease-especially when prevalence is low-but that harvest prescriptions promoting an abundance of mature male deer contribute to the exponential growth of epidemics.
慢性消瘦病（一种感染鹿科动物的传染性朊病毒病）的出现促使国际社会呼吁采取可持续的、社会可接受的控制措施。在这里，我们描述了美国科罗拉多州的一个长期、空间复制的关系，即狩猎压力可以调节流行趋势所反映的明显流行动态。在 2002 年至 2018 年间研究的科罗拉多州的 12 个地区中，那些年度狩猎许可证数量（压力）下降最大的地区，猎人捕杀的感染成年（≥2 岁）雄性鹿的比例（流行率）增加最大；在许可证数量保持或增加的大多数地区，流行率趋势相对平稳。在过去 2 年中发放的许可证数量平均值可以很好地解释观察到的模式：发放更多的许可证可以降低随后收获感染鹿的风险，而减少许可证数量则会增加这种风险。我们的研究结果表明，通过足够的狩猎压力来收获骡鹿可能会控制慢性消瘦病——尤其是在流行率较低时——但促进成熟雄性鹿数量增加的收获处方会导致疾病的指数级增长。
