Fisheries Research, Marine Ecosystems, NSW Department of Primary Industries, PO Box 4321, Coffs Harbour, NSW, 2450, Australia; National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, 2 Bay Drive, Coffs Harbour, Australia.
Fisheries Research, Marine Ecosystems, NSW Department of Primary Industries, PO Box 4321, Coffs Harbour, NSW, 2450, Australia; National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, 2 Bay Drive, Coffs Harbour, Australia.
Mar Environ Res. 2021 Apr;166:105267. doi: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105267. Epub 2021 Feb 4.
Canopy forming macroalgae are declining globally due to climate change and the identification of refuges for these habitats is crucial for their conservation. This is particularly pertinent in ocean warming hotspots where significant range contractions of kelp have occurred and are projected to continue. We developed a stacked urchin-kelp species distribution model (SDM) to predict climate refugia for kelp (Ecklonia radiata) in an ocean warming hotspot, south-eastern Australia. The optimal stacked-SDM incorporated biotic and abiotic explanatory covariates and was validated using an independent dataset. Density of the urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii, summer bottom temperature and photosynthetically available radiation at the seabed were significant predictors of kelp cover, highlighting the physiological and ecological influence of these variables on the distribution of kelp. Our optimal stacked-SDM predicted three spatially distinct refuge areas, where kelp occurs in deeper waters than surrounding seascapes. The presence of kelp at two of these refuge areas was confirmed using independent data. The identification of these refuge areas is crucial for conservation, as they are likely to facilitate the persistence of ecologically and economically important kelp forests as waters warm in shallow areas and kelp retreat to depth under climate change. Furthermore, identification of refugia will enable proactive spatial planning that prioritises new locations for protection to ensure that key kelp habitats can persist in a future of increasing stress.
由于气候变化，全球的冠层形成大型藻类正在减少，因此确定这些栖息地的避难所对于它们的保护至关重要。在海洋变暖热点地区，这一点尤其重要，那里的大型海藻已经发生了显著的范围收缩，并预计将继续收缩。我们开发了一种堆叠的海胆-巨藻物种分布模型（SDM），以预测澳大利亚东南部海洋变暖热点地区巨藻（Ecklonia radiata）的气候避难所。最优的堆叠 SDM 纳入了生物和非生物解释性协变量，并使用独立数据集进行了验证。棘冠海胆（Centrostephanus rodgersii）的密度、夏季海底温度和光合有效辐射是巨藻覆盖率的重要预测因子，突出了这些变量对巨藻分布的生理和生态影响。我们的最优堆叠 SDM 预测了三个空间上不同的避难区，巨藻在这些避难区的水深比周围的海域深。使用独立数据证实了其中两个避难区存在巨藻。确定这些避难区对于保护至关重要，因为随着浅水区水温升高，这些避难区可能有助于生态和经济上重要的巨藻林的持续存在，并且在气候变化下，巨藻退缩到更深的水域。此外，避难所的识别将能够进行积极的空间规划，优先考虑新的保护地点，以确保在未来的压力下，关键的巨藻栖息地能够持续存在。
