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加拿大魁北克拍卖市场中影响犊牛价格的因素:2008-2019 年。

Factors affecting dairy calf price in auction markets in Québec, Canada: 2008-2019.

机构信息

Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 rue Sicotte, St-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.

Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, 3200 rue Sicotte, St-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2021 Apr;104(4):4635-4649. doi: 10.3168/jds.2020-19523. Epub 2021 Feb 19.

Abstract

Dairy calves not kept for replacement are sold at young age in Québec auction markets for white and grain-fed veal calf production. The province of Québec produces 80% of the Canadian veal meat, but little information is available on the factors associated with the calves' price per crude weight (Can$/kg; Can$1 = US$0.78 at time of writing). The characteristics of calves sold in Québec auction markets from 12 complete years (2008-2019) were retrospectively studied. The calves' weight, breed and sex, the year and season of sale, the auction site, as well as the estimated distance traveled between the farm of origin and the auction site were analyzed as potential covariates associated with calf price. Two multivariable logistic models associated with low sale value (below the 10th or the 25th percentile of the day price) and 2 models associated with good sale characteristics (above the 50th or the 75th percentile of the day price) were built. The median distance between the farm and the auction site was 52 km (interquartile range: 30-95 km). Only 5% of calves traveled distances greater than 220 km. The weight, breed, sex, and auction sites explained most of the variability in the different models. Distance traveled and multiple interactions were also significantly associated with the outcomes. Calves with body weight from 48 to <56 kg were sold in higher percentiles of the day than lighter or heavier calves. Beef-crossed calves had better sale prices than Holstein, whereas colored dairy calves had lower sale characteristics than both Holstein and beef-crossed calves. The effect of distance traveled was complex, varying depending on the model and interactions, and explained a small portion of the total deviance in every model. Calves traveling from distances ≥110 km had lower sale characteristics in summer and fall in the different studied models. This study gives relevant insights on calves' characteristics associated with good versus low sale prices in Québec auction markets.

摘要

魁北克省的奶牛肉牛养殖者会在小牛达到一定年龄时将其出售到拍卖市场,用于生产白肉和谷物育肥小牛肉。该省生产了加拿大 80%的小牛肉,但关于影响小牛每粗重价格(加元/公斤;写作时加元 1 美元=0.78 美元)的因素,相关信息很少。本研究对魁北克省拍卖市场在 12 个完整年份(2008-2019 年)内售出的小牛的特征进行了回顾性研究。分析了小牛的体重、品种和性别、销售年份和季节、拍卖地点以及从原产地到拍卖地点的估计行驶距离等潜在协变量与小牛价格之间的关系。构建了两个与低销售价值(低于当日价格的第 10 或第 25 百分位数)和两个与良好销售特征(高于当日价格的第 50 或第 75 百分位数)相关的多变量逻辑模型。农场与拍卖地点之间的中位数距离为 52 公里(四分位距:30-95 公里)。只有 5%的小牛行驶距离超过 220 公里。体重、品种、性别和拍卖地点解释了不同模型中大部分的可变性。行驶距离和多个相互作用也与结果显著相关。体重为 48 至<56 公斤的小牛在当日的销售价格更高,而体重较轻或较重的小牛则销售价格较低。杂交牛犊的销售价格高于荷斯坦牛犊,而有色奶牛犊的销售特征则低于荷斯坦牛犊和杂交牛犊。行驶距离的影响是复杂的,因模型和相互作用而异,并且在每个模型中仅解释了总离差的一小部分。在不同的研究模型中,距离大于等于 110 公里的小牛在夏季和秋季的销售特征较低。本研究为了解影响魁北克省拍卖市场小牛良好销售价格与低销售价格的因素提供了相关见解。

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