Department of General Surgery, Ordos Central Hospital, Ordos Clinical Medical College of Inner Mongolia Medical University, Inner Mongolia, P.R. China.
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2021 Feb;25(3):1455-1461. doi: 10.26355/eurrev_202102_24853.
The purpose of this study was to establish a nomogram for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) and verify its predictive value.
A total of 571 AP patients received by Ordos Central Hospital from January 2015 to December 2018 were included in this study. According to the 2012 Revised Atlanta classification, the included subjects were classified into severe AP (SAP) group and non-severe AP (NSAP) group [including patient with mild AP (MAP) and moderately SAP (MSAP)]. The baseline characteristics, imageological data and pathological data within 24 h after the disease onset between the two groups were analyzed using One-way analysis of variance (one-way ANOVA). R language was used for establishing a predictive nomogram, whose performance was verified by clinical data of 150 AP cases collected from December 2018 to December 2019.
One-way ANOVA shows that SAP and NSAP patients show significant differences in sex, calcium ions, creatinine, neutrophils ratio, lymphocytes ratio and eosinophils ratio (p<0.05). A predictive nomogram was accordingly established using the six indicators. Validation on this predictive nomogram showed high internal validation concordance index (C-index) of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74), and high external validation C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.76).
This nomogram can be used as a clinical tool to predict the severity of SAP.
本研究旨在建立预测急性胰腺炎（AP）严重程度的列线图，并验证其预测价值。
回顾性分析 2015 年 1 月至 2018 年 12 月鄂尔多斯市中心医院收治的 571 例 AP 患者的临床资料。根据 2012 年亚特兰大修订分类标准，将纳入患者分为重症 AP（SAP）组和非重症 AP（NSAP）组[包括轻度 AP（MAP）和中度重症 SAP（MSAP）]。采用单因素方差分析比较两组患者发病 24 h 内的一般资料、影像学数据和病理学数据。采用 R 语言建立预测列线图，并通过收集 2018 年 12 月至 2019 年 12 月鄂尔多斯市中心医院收治的 150 例 AP 患者的临床资料进行验证。
单因素方差分析结果显示，SAP 组和 NSAP 组患者的性别、钙离子、肌酐、中性粒细胞比例、淋巴细胞比例和嗜酸性粒细胞比例比较，差异均有统计学意义（P<0.05）。据此建立了一个包含 6 个指标的预测列线图。该预测列线图的内部验证一致性指数（C 指数）为 0.69（95%CI：0.640.74），外部验证 C 指数为 0.71（95%CI：0.670.76）。
该列线图可作为预测 SAP 严重程度的临床工具。
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