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本文引用的文献

1
Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in an Oropharyngeal Swab Specimen, Milan, Italy, Early December 2019.2019 年 12 月初，意大利米兰咽拭子样本中检出 SARS-CoV-2 RNA。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Feb;27(2):648-650. doi: 10.3201/eid2702.204632. Epub 2020 Dec 8.
2
Tracing day-zero and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach.追踪意大利伦巴第地区的零号病人并预测 COVID-19 疫情：一种房室模型和数值优化方法。
PLoS One. 2020 Oct 30;15(10):e0240649. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240649. eCollection 2020.
3
Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R).基本繁殖数（R）的复杂性。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2019 Jan;25(1):1-4. doi: 10.3201/eid2501.171901.

从意大利第一波 COVID-19 疫情的破坏性影响中吸取教训。

Lessons from the devastating impact of the first COVID-19 wave in Italy.

机构信息

Laboratory of Microbiology, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece.

Dipartimento di Matematica e Applicazioni "Renato Caccioppoli", Università Degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy.

出版信息

Pathog Glob Health. 2021 Jun;115(4):211-212. doi: 10.1080/20477724.2021.1894399. Epub 2021 Feb 25.

DOI:10.1080/20477724.2021.1894399
PMID:33629933
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8168751/
Abstract

Herein, we are critically examining the chain of events and discussing previously unrecognized factors that led to the 'perfect COVID-19 storm' in northern Italy during the first epidemic wave in spring 2020. SARS-CoV-2 was circulating uncontrollably at least for five weeks before the adoption of containment measures, and the role of exponential growth in the spread of the virus, conveyed by a high , was likely underestimated. An understanding of this failure's causes and contexts will help us to control the strong second wave of the pandemic we are now facing in Europe, and to be better prepared for future outbreaks.

摘要

在此，我们批判性地审视了事件链，并讨论了导致 2020 年春季意大利北部首次疫情期间出现“完美 COVID-19 风暴”的先前未被认识到的因素。在采取遏制措施之前，SARS-CoV-2 至少已经不受控制地传播了五周，而 所传达的病毒传播指数级增长的作用可能被低估了。了解这一失败的原因和背景将有助于我们控制欧洲目前面临的第二波大流行，并为未来的疫情做好更充分的准备。