[Experience of prognosis and the risk factors of stroke in Novosibirsk].

On the basis of the data from the registry of cerebral stroke (CS) cases in Novosibirsk (covering 937 patients and 314 healthy control subjects) the authors have made a mathematical analysis of 19 factors of the risk of disease development. Nine factors have been isolated whose varying combinations were most contributory to the risk of the development of CS in the studied population: cardiac diseases, transient disorder of the cerebral circulation, arterial hypertension, atherosclerosis, aggravated heredity for cardiovascular diseases, intermittent claudication, diabetes mellitus, systematic alcohol abuse, and hypodynamia. The authors have developed a practicable and reliable system for predicting the development of cerebral stroke in apparently healthy subjects (the accuracy of prediction is 86%).