Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China; Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
Accid Anal Prev. 2021 May;154:106054. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106054. Epub 2021 Mar 2.
A consecutive crash consists of a primary crash and one or more secondary crashes that occur subsequently in a short period of time within a certain distance. It often affects a relatively large area of road space and the traffic disruption created can be difficult for traffic managers to control and resolve. This study identifies the factors delineating a primary crash that results in secondary crashes within a minute from a regular crash that does not result in any secondary crashes. Random-effects, random-parameter and two-level binary logistic regression models are applied to data collected on 8779 crashes on the freeway network of the Guizhou Province, China in 2018, of which 299 are consecutive crashes. According to the AIC values, the two-level logistic model outperforms the other two models. Rear-end primary crashes have a significant random effect varying across road segments on the occurrence of consecutive crashes. Various crash types (rear-end, roll-over and side-swipe), tunnel crash and foggy weather are positively associated with the possibility to cause subsequent consecutive crashes, whereas single-vehicle crash, truck involvement and the time periods with poorer natural lighting are less likely to incur consecutive crashes. Recommendations are provided to minimize the possibility of the occurrence of consecutive crashes on a freeway.
连续碰撞是指在短时间内，在一定距离内相继发生的一次主碰撞和一次或多次次碰撞。它通常会影响到相对较大的道路空间区域，且由此造成的交通中断可能使交通管理人员难以控制和解决。本研究旨在确定导致次碰撞的主碰撞的因素，这些次碰撞发生在一分钟内，而不导致任何次碰撞的常规碰撞则不会发生。随机效应、随机参数和两级二元逻辑回归模型应用于 2018 年在中国贵州省高速公路网络上收集的 8779 起碰撞事故数据，其中 299 起为连续碰撞事故。根据 AIC 值，两级逻辑模型优于其他两个模型。追尾主碰撞在道路路段上具有显著的随机效应，这会影响连续碰撞的发生。各种碰撞类型（追尾、翻车和侧面碰撞）、隧道碰撞和雾天与发生后续连续碰撞的可能性呈正相关，而单车碰撞、卡车卷入和自然光照明较差的时间段则不太可能发生连续碰撞。本研究提供了一些建议，以最大限度地降低高速公路上连续碰撞发生的可能性。
