平均海面温度变化会影响中纬度地区与厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）相关的降水变化。
Mean sea surface temperature changes influence ENSO-related precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes.
机构信息
Earth System Modeling Center, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Korea.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2021 Mar 5;12(1):1495. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21787-z.
El Niño profoundly impacts precipitation in high-population regions. This demands an advanced understanding of the changes in El Niño-induced precipitation under the future global warming scenario. However, thus far, consensus is lacking regarding future changes in mid-latitude precipitation influenced by El Niño. Here, by analyzing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we show that future precipitation changes are tightly linked to the response of each type of El Niño to the tropical Pacific mean sea surface temperature (SST) change. A La Niña-like mean SST change intensifies basin-wide El Niño events causing approximately 20% more precipitation over East Asia and North America via enhancing moisture transport. Meanwhile, an El Niño-like mean SST change generates more frequent eastern Pacific El Niño events, enhancing precipitation in North American. Our findings highlight the importance of the mean SST projection in selectively influencing the types of El Niño and their remote impact on precipitation.
厄尔尼诺现象深刻影响着人口密集地区的降水。这就要求我们深入了解在未来全球变暖背景下，厄尔尼诺现象引起的降水变化。然而，目前对于厄尔尼诺现象影响的中纬度降水的未来变化仍缺乏共识。在这里，我们通过分析耦合模式比较计划的模拟结果表明，未来降水变化与每种厄尔尼诺现象对热带太平洋平均海表温度（SST）变化的响应紧密相关。拉尼娜型平均 SST 变化会加剧泛型厄尔尼诺事件，通过增强水汽输送，使东亚和北美的降水增加约 20%。同时，厄尔尼诺型平均 SST 变化会导致更频繁的东太平洋厄尔尼诺事件，从而增加北美的降水。我们的研究结果强调了平均 SST 预测在选择性影响厄尔尼诺现象的类型及其对降水的远程影响方面的重要性。
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