制造食品和外食中脂肪含量逐渐减少对英国肥胖的潜在影响：一项建模研究。

Potential impact of gradual reduction of fat content in manufactured and out-of-home food on obesity in the United Kingdom: a modeling study.

机构信息

Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom.

Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

出版信息

Am J Clin Nutr. 2021 May 8;113(5):1312-1321. doi: 10.1093/ajcn/nqaa396.

DOI:10.1093/ajcn/nqaa396

PMID:33677474

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8106748/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Manufactured and out-of-home foods contribute to excessive calories and have a critical role in fueling the obesity epidemic. We propose a 20% fat reduction in these foods.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the potential impact of the proposed strategy on energy intake, obesity and related health outcomes in the population.

METHODS

We used the National Diet and Nutrition Survey rolling program (NDNS RP) data to calculate fat and energy contributions from 46 manufactured and out-of-home food categories. We considered a gradual fat reduction-focusing on SFA-in these categories to achieve a 20% reduction in 5 years. We estimated the reduction in energy intake in the NDNS RP population and predicted the body weight reduction using a weight loss model. We scaled up the body weight reduction to the UK adult population. We estimated reductions in overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes cases. We calculated the reductions of LDL, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke deaths that could be prevented from the SFA reduction.

RESULTS

The selected categories contributed to 38.6% of the population's energy intake. By the end of the fifth year, our proposed strategy would reduce the mean energy intake by 67.6 kcal/d/person (95% CI: 66.1-68.8). The energy reduction would reduce the mean body weight by 2.7 kg (95% CI: 2.6-2.8). The obesity prevalence would be reduced by 5.3% and the overweight prevalence by 1.5%, corresponding to 3.5 and 1 million cases of obesity and overweight, respectively, being reduced in the United Kingdom. The body weight reduction could prevent 183,000 (95% CI: 171,000-194,000) cases of type 2 diabetes over 2 decades. Energy from SFA would fall by 2.6%, lowering LDL by 0.13 mmol/L and preventing 87,560 IHD deaths (95% CI: 82,260-112,760) and 9520 stroke deaths (95% CI: 4400-14,660) over 20 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A modest fat reduction (particularly in SFA) in widely consumed foods would prevent obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

摘要

背景

加工食品和外出就餐食品摄入过多卡路里，是导致肥胖流行的关键因素。我们建议将这些食品中的脂肪含量降低 20%。

目的

评估该策略对人群中能量摄入、肥胖和相关健康结果的潜在影响。

方法

我们使用国家饮食与营养调查滚动项目（NDNS RP）的数据，计算了 46 种加工食品和外出就餐食品的脂肪和能量贡献。我们考虑在这些类别中逐步减少脂肪（重点是 SFA），以在 5 年内减少 20%。我们估计 NDNS RP 人群的能量摄入减少量，并使用体重减轻模型预测体重减轻量。我们将体重减轻量扩大到英国成年人口。我们估计超重/肥胖和 2 型糖尿病病例减少量。我们计算了 SFA 减少可预防的 LDL、缺血性心脏病（IHD）和中风死亡人数的减少量。

结果

选定的类别占人群能量摄入的 38.6%。到第五年末，我们的建议策略将使每人每天的平均能量摄入量减少 67.6 千卡（95%CI：66.1-68.8）。能量减少将使平均体重减轻 2.7 公斤（95%CI：2.6-2.8）。肥胖患病率将降低 5.3%，超重患病率将降低 1.5%，这意味着英国肥胖和超重病例分别减少 350 万和 100 万例。体重减轻可以预防 20 年内 18.3 万例（95%CI：17.1 万例至 19.4 万例）2 型糖尿病病例。SFA 提供的能量将下降 2.6%，使 LDL 降低 0.13mmol/L，并预防 87560 例 IHD 死亡（95%CI：82260-112760）和 9520 例中风死亡（95%CI：4400-14660）在 20 年内。