School of Economics, Hefei University of Technology, 193, Tunxi Road, Hefei, 230009, Anhui, People's Republic of China.
School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jul;28(27):35830-35843. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13056-9. Epub 2021 Mar 6.
Recently, exploring the driving factors behind carbon emission (CE) change in China has achieved increasing attention. As the determinants of CEs are likely to be affected by both spatial and temporal heterogeneities, we propose an extended production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) approach based on global meta-frontier data envelopment analysis (DEA) to resolve heterogeneity problem. Then, by combing the extended PDA and index decomposition analysis (IDA) approaches, CE changes are decomposed into nine factors. And using panel data from China's 30 provinces during 2005-2015, the main results provide findings as follows. (1) The national total CEs are continuous increasing from 2005 to 2012, and then remain stable in 2012-2015. (2) Potential energy intensity and carbon emission temporal heterogeneity result in reduction of CEs. (3) Economic activity is the dominant driving factor for increasing the CEs, while temporal catch-up effect of carbon emission helps decrease the CEs in almost all provinces.
最近，探索中国碳排放（CE）变化的驱动因素已引起越来越多的关注。由于 CE 的决定因素可能受到空间和时间异质性的影响，我们提出了一种基于全局超前沿数据包络分析（DEA）的扩展生产理论分解分析（PDA）方法来解决异质性问题。然后，通过结合扩展的 PDA 和指数分解分析（IDA）方法，将 CE 变化分解为九个因素。并利用中国 2005-2015 年 30 个省份的面板数据，主要结果如下：（1）全国总 CE 从 2005 年持续增加到 2012 年，然后在 2012-2015 年保持稳定。（2）潜在能源强度和碳排放时间异质性导致 CE 减少。（3）经济活动是增加 CE 的主要驱动因素，而碳排放的时间追赶效应有助于降低几乎所有省份的 CE。
