Faculty of ICT, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand.
Biomathematics and Epidemiology, EPSP-TIMC, UMR CNRS 5525, Grenoble-Alpes University, VetAgro Sup, Grenoble, France.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Mar 8;15(3):e0009122. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009122. eCollection 2021 Mar.
Dengue is an emerging vector-borne viral disease across the world. The primary dengue mosquito vectors breed in containers with sufficient water and nutrition. Outdoor containers can be detected from geotagged images using state-of-the-art deep learning methods. In this study, we utilize such container information from street view images in developing a risk mapping model and determine the added value of including container information in predicting dengue risk. We developed seasonal-spatial models in which the target variable dengue incidence was explained using weather and container variable predictors. Linear mixed models with fixed and random effects are employed in our models to account for different characteristics of containers and weather variables. Using data from three provinces of Thailand between 2015 and 2018, the models are developed at the sub-district level resolution to facilitate the development of effective targeted intervention strategies. The performance of the models is evaluated with two baseline models: a classic linear model and a linear mixed model without container information. The performance evaluated with the correlation coefficients, R-squared, and AIC shows the proposed model with the container information outperforms both baseline models in all three provinces. Through sensitivity analysis, we investigate the containers that have a high impact on dengue risk. Our findings indicate that outdoor containers identified from street view images can be a useful data source in building effective dengue risk models and that the resulting models have potential in helping to target container elimination interventions.
登革热是一种在全球范围内新出现的经媒介传播的病毒性疾病。主要的登革热蚊媒在有充足水和营养的容器中滋生。可以利用最先进的深度学习方法从地理标记图像中检测到户外容器。在这项研究中,我们利用街景图像中的此类容器信息来开发风险映射模型,并确定在预测登革热风险时包含容器信息的附加值。我们开发了季节性空间模型,其中使用天气和容器变量预测因子来解释目标变量登革热发病率。我们的模型采用带有固定和随机效应的线性混合模型,以解释容器和天气变量的不同特征。使用 2015 年至 2018 年期间来自泰国三个省份的数据,我们在分区级别分辨率下开发模型,以促进制定有效的有针对性的干预策略。使用相关系数、R 平方和 AIC 对模型进行评估,结果表明,在所有三个省份,具有容器信息的模型均优于两个基线模型。通过敏感性分析,我们研究了对登革热风险有重大影响的容器。我们的研究结果表明,从街景图像中识别出的户外容器可以成为构建有效登革热风险模型的有用数据源,并且由此产生的模型具有帮助针对容器消除干预措施的潜力。