School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, Singapore.
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, Singapore; Institute for Infocomm Research, The Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A⁎STAR), Singapore.
Accid Anal Prev. 2021 May;154:106061. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106061. Epub 2021 Mar 7.
The era of 'Big Data' provides opportunities for researchers to have deep insights into traffic safety. By taking advantages of 'Big Data', this study proposes a data-driven method to develop a Copula-Bayesian Network (Copula-BN) using a large-scale naturalistic driving dataset with multiple features. The Copula-BN is able to explain the causality of a risky driving maneuver. As compared with conventional BNs, the Copula-BN developed in this study has the following advantages: the Copula-BN 1. Has a more rational and explainable structure; 2. Is less likely to be over-fitting and can attain more satisfactory prediction performance; and 3. Can handle not only discrete but also continuous features. In terms of technical innovations, Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) is used for feature selection, while Gaussian Copula function is employed to build the dependency structure of the Copula-BN. As for applications, the Copula-BNs are used to investigate the causality of risky lane-changing (LC) and car-following (CF) maneuvers, upon which the comparisons are made between the two essential but risky driving maneuvers. In this study, the Copula-BNs are developed based on the Second Highway Research Program (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) database. Upon network evaluation, the Copula-BNs for both risky LC and CF maneuvers demonstrate satisfactory structure performance and promising prediction performance. Feature inferences are conducted based on the Copula-BNs to respectively illustrate the causation of the two risky maneuvers. Several interesting findings related to features' contribution are discussed in this paper. To a certain extent, the Copula-BN developed using the data-driven method makes a trade-off between prediction and causality within the 'Big Data'. The comparison between risky LC and CF maneuvers also provides a valuable reference for crash risk evaluation, road safety policy-making, etc. In the future, the achievements of this study could be applied in Advanced Driver-Assistance System (ADAS) and accident diagnosis system to enhance road traffic safety.
“大数据”时代为研究人员深入洞察交通安全提供了机会。本研究利用“大数据”,提出了一种使用具有多种特征的大规模自然驾驶数据集开发 Copula-Bayesian 网络 (Copula-BN) 的数据驱动方法。Copula-BN 能够解释危险驾驶行为的因果关系。与传统的 BNs 相比,本研究中开发的 Copula-BN 具有以下优势:1. 具有更合理和可解释的结构;2. 不太可能过度拟合,并且可以获得更令人满意的预测性能;3. 不仅可以处理离散特征,还可以处理连续特征。在技术创新方面,Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) 用于特征选择,而高斯 Copula 函数用于构建 Copula-BN 的依赖结构。就应用而言,Copula-BNs 用于研究危险变道 (LC) 和跟车 (CF) 行为的因果关系,对这两种基本但危险的驾驶行为进行了比较。在本研究中,Copula-BNs 是基于第二高速公路研究计划 (SHRP2) 自然驾驶研究 (NDS) 数据库开发的。在网络评估中,危险 LC 和 CF 操作的 Copula-BNs 均表现出令人满意的结构性能和有前途的预测性能。根据 Copula-BNs 进行特征推理,分别说明两种危险行为的原因。本文讨论了与特征贡献相关的一些有趣发现。在一定程度上,使用数据驱动方法开发的 Copula-BN 在“大数据”中在预测和因果关系之间取得了平衡。危险 LC 和 CF 操作之间的比较也为碰撞风险评估、道路安全决策等提供了有价值的参考。在未来,本研究的成果可应用于先进驾驶辅助系统 (ADAS) 和事故诊断系统,以提高道路交通安全。