Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 17;16(3):e0247780. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247780. eCollection 2021.
Injuries and fatalities due to firearms are a major burden on public health in the US. The rise in gun violence in popular movies has been suggested as a potential cultural influence on this behavior. Nevertheless, homicide rates have not increased over recent decades in the US, suggesting that media portrayals have had little influence on gun violence. Here we challenge this interpretation by examining trends in the proportion of violence that are attributable to firearms, a measure that should be more sensitive to media violence. In addition, we examine trends in the portrayal of guns in popular television (TV) dramas, which are viewed more frequently than movies. We ask (a) whether gun violence has increased in these TV shows not only on an absolute basis but also as a proportion of violent scenes and (b) whether trends in gun portrayal on these shows are associated with corresponding trends in the proportion of real-world violence attributable to firearms in the US from 2000 to 2018. To answer these questions, we coded annual instances of violence, gun violence, and proportion of violence involving guns for each 5-minute segment of 33 popular TV dramas in the police, medical, and legal genres from 2000 to 2018. Trends in annual rates of violence, gun violence and proportion of violence involving guns were determined over the study period and were compared to annual rates of homicide attributable to firearms in three age groups: 15-24, 25-34 and 35 and older. Although violence on TV dramas peaked in 2011, gun use steadily increased over the study period both in absolute terms and in relation to other violent methods. The latter metric paralleled trends in homicides attributable to firearms for all three age groups, with the strongest relationship for youth ages 15-24 (R2 = .40, P = .003). The positive relation between relative amount of TV violence involving guns and actual homicides due to firearms, especially among youth, is consistent with the hypothesis that entertainment media are contributing to the normative acceptance of guns for violent purposes. Future research is needed to study the influence of media violence on gun acquisition at the individual level.
在美国，枪支造成的伤害和死亡是公共健康的主要负担。有人认为，流行电影中枪支暴力的增加是这种行为的潜在文化影响。然而，近几十年来，美国的凶杀率并没有上升，这表明媒体的描述对枪支暴力的影响很小。在这里，我们通过检查归因于枪支的暴力比例的趋势来挑战这一解释，这一措施应该对媒体暴力更敏感。此外，我们还研究了流行电视剧（电视剧）中枪支描绘的趋势，这些电视剧比电影更受欢迎。我们问（a）这些电视剧中的枪支暴力不仅在绝对基础上而且在暴力场景中的比例上是否有所增加，以及（b）这些电视剧中枪支描绘的趋势是否与 2000 年至 2018 年美国归因于枪支的实际暴力中相应的趋势相关。为了回答这些问题，我们对 2000 年至 2018 年期间警察、医疗和法律三个类型的 33 部热门电视剧中的每 5 分钟片段进行了暴力、枪支暴力和枪支暴力比例的年度实例编码。在研究期间确定了暴力、枪支暴力和枪支暴力比例的年度趋势，并将其与三个年龄段（15-24、25-34 和 35 岁及以上）归因于枪支的凶杀率进行了比较。尽管电视剧中的暴力在 2011 年达到顶峰，但在研究期间，枪支的使用无论是在绝对值还是与其他暴力手段相比都在稳步增加。这一衡量标准与所有三个年龄段归因于枪支的凶杀率趋势一致，与 15-24 岁的年轻人关系最为密切（R2=0.40，P=0.003）。电视暴力中涉及枪支的相对数量与实际因枪支而导致的凶杀案之间的正相关关系，尤其是在年轻人中，这与娱乐媒体助长枪支被用于暴力目的的规范性接受的假设是一致的。未来需要进行研究，以研究媒体暴力对个人获取枪支的影响。
