Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Juction of 22 Bahman, Kermanshah, Kermanshah province 59167-67159, Iran.
Department of Medical Engineering, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Poursina St, Qods St, Enqelab St, Tehran, Tehran province 14176-13151, Iran.
Int J Qual Health Care. 2021 Mar 31;33(1). doi: 10.1093/intqhc/mzab050.
COVID-19 is the most informative pandemic in history. These unprecedented recorded data give rise to some novel concepts, discussions and models. Macroscopic modeling of the period of hospitalization is one of these new issues.
Modeling of the lag between diagnosis and death is done by using two classes of macroscopic analytical methods: the correlation-based methods based on Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients, and the logarithmic methods of two types. Also, we apply eight weighted average methods to smooth the time series before calculating the distance. We consider five lags with the least distance. All the computations are conducted on Matlab R2015b.
The length of hospitalization for the fatal cases in the USA, Italy and Germany are 2-10, 1-6 and 5-19 days, respectively. Overall, this length in the USA is 2 days more than that in Italy and 5 days less than that in Germany.
We take the distance between the diagnosis and death as the length of hospitalization. There is a negative association between the length of hospitalization and the case fatality rate. Therefore, the estimation of the length of hospitalization by using these macroscopic mathematical methods can be introduced as an indicator to scale the success of the countries fighting the ongoing pandemic.
COVID-19 是历史上信息最丰富的大流行。这些前所未有的记录数据引发了一些新的概念、讨论和模型。住院期间的宏观建模就是这些新问题之一。
使用两类宏观分析方法对诊断和死亡之间的滞后进行建模：基于 Pearson、Spearman 和 Kendall 相关系数的相关方法，以及两种对数方法。此外，我们还应用了八种加权平均方法来平滑时间序列，然后再计算距离。我们考虑了五个最小距离的滞后。所有计算均在 Matlab R2015b 上进行。
美国、意大利和德国的死亡病例的住院时间分别为 2-10、1-6 和 5-19 天。总体而言，美国的住院时间比意大利长 2 天，比德国短 5 天。
我们将诊断和死亡之间的距离视为住院时间。住院时间与病死率呈负相关。因此，通过这些宏观数学方法来估计住院时间，可以作为衡量各国应对当前大流行成功的一个指标。
