Non-linear renal function decline is frequent in patients with type 2 diabetes who progress fast to end-stage renal disease and is associated with African-Caribbean ethnicity and HbA variability.

To our knowledge, there are no studies examining eGFR trajectories in an ethnically diverse cohort of T2DM patients with established DKD and long follow-up. We conducted a retrospective analysis of medical records of T2DM patients attending a specialist diabetes renal clinic in order to identify risk factors and specific eGFR trajectories associated with ESRD. There is limited information and long term follow-up on eGFR trajectories in ethnically diverse cohorts of T2DM patients with established diabetic kidney disease. We conducted a retrospective analysis of medical records of 398 T2DM patients (46.5% African-Carribean ethnicity) to identify risk factors and specific eGFR trajectories associated with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A non-linear eGFR trajectory was observed in 59% of the 71 patients who reached ESRD. African-Caribbean ethnicity and glycaemic variability are independently associated with distinct non-linear eGFR trajectories that result in fast progression to ESRD. Clinicians should be aware that non-linear eGFR decline is frequent in patients with T2DM who have fast progression to ESRD. Predicting renal function decline based on patterns and early changes in eGFR trajectories and associated risk factors, may better enable individualized risk stratification and care for those at highest risk of rapid progression to ESRD.