The role of reproductive loss on flock performance: a comparison of nine industry flocks.

The reproductive performance of a sheep flock is dependent on a multitude of complex interacting factors. Attaining optimal flock performance requires information about how the reproductive steps are linked and relate to readily available measurements of the state of the flock. The goal was to use data from nine commercial flocks (greater than 300,000 records) to investigate and model the key reproductive steps affecting flock reproductive performance. We also developed a maximum-likelihood based methodology to predict flock ovulation rate based on measurements of the number of fetuses at mid-pregnancy (detected by ultrasound-scanning). The model was used to determine how changes in premating liveweight, age, predicted ovulation rate, number of fetuses at mid-pregnancy, lamb survival and lamb growth rate affect the total lamb liveweight at weaning per ewe exposed to the ram in each flock. The data from the commercial flocks were also used to investigate the role of ewe age and premating liveweight on each reproductive step. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify the key reproductive steps affecting flock reproductive performance, with a focus on understanding how these steps vary between flocks. The elasticity for embryo survival was 60% of that for lamb survival for these flocks and the elasticities for ovulation rate were highly variable between flocks (0.16 to 0.50 for mature ewes). This indicates that ovulation rate was near-optimal for some flocks, whereas there was potential to significantly improve flock performance in suboptimal flocks. The elasticity for ewe premating liveweight was highly variable between flocks (-0.03 to 0.84 for mature ewes and -0.18 to 1.39 for ewe lambs), indicating that premating liveweight ranged from optimal to suboptimal between flocks. For these suboptimal farms, the opportunity exists to increase flock performance through improved management of ewe premating liveweight. Reproductive loss was significantly greater in ewe lambs than mature ewes, although the difference is dependent on the stage of reproduction and flock. Predicted ovulation rate was 25% lower for ewe lambs and there was a 30% relative decrease in the predicted embryo survival probability from ovulation to scanning for ewe lambs. There was a 10% relative decrease in lamb survival probability from birth to weaning for ewe lambs and lamb growth rate was 25% lower for ewe lambs.