Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO 80305
Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO 80305.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Apr 6;118(14). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2021535118.
Tornadoes cause damage, injury, and death when intense winds impact structures. Quantifying the strength and extent of such winds is critical to characterizing tornado hazards. Ratings of intensity and size are based nearly entirely on postevent damage surveys [R. Edwards et al., 94, 641-653 (2013)]. It has long been suspected that these suffer low bias [C. A. Doswell, D. W. Burgess, 116, 495-501 (1988)]. Here, using mapping of low-level tornado winds in 120 tornadoes, we prove that supercell tornadoes are typically much stronger and wider than damage surveys indicate. Our results permit an accurate assessment of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes and tornado wind hazards, based on actual wind-speed observations, and meaningful comparisons of the distribution of tornado intensities and sizes with theoretical predictions. We analyze data from Doppler On Wheels (DOW) radar measurements of 120 tornadoes at the time of peak measured intensity. In striking contrast to conventional damage-based climatologies, median tornado peak wind speeds are ∼60 m⋅s, capable of causing significant, Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF)-2 to -3, damage, and 20% are capable of the most intense EF-4/EF-5 damage. National Weather Service (NWS) EF/wind speed ratings are 1.2 to 1.5 categories (∼20 m⋅s) lower than DOW observations for tornadoes documented by both the NWS and DOWs. Median tornado diameter is 250 to 500 m, with 10 to 15% >1 km. Wind engineering tornado-hazard-model predictions and building wind resistance standards may require upward adjustment due to the increased wind-damage risk documented here.
当强风冲击建筑物时,龙卷风会造成破坏、伤害和死亡。量化这种风的强度和范围对于描述龙卷风危险至关重要。强度和规模的评级几乎完全基于灾后损害调查[R. Edwards 等人,94,641-653(2013)]。长期以来,人们一直怀疑这些调查存在低偏差[C. A. Doswell,D. W. Burgess,116,495-501(1988)]。在这里,我们使用 120 个龙卷风的低空龙卷风风的映射证明了超级单体龙卷风能比损害调查显示的强得多,宽得多。我们的结果允许基于实际风速观测对龙卷风强度和规模以及龙卷风风害的分布进行准确评估,并对龙卷风强度和规模的分布与理论预测进行有意义的比较。我们分析了在测量到的最大强度时,多普勒轮上(DOW)雷达对 120 个龙卷风的测量数据。与传统的基于损害的气候学形成鲜明对比的是,中值龙卷风峰值风速约为 60 m⋅s,能够造成重大的、增强的藤田规模(EF)-2 到 -3 级破坏,有 20%的龙卷风能够造成最强烈的 EF-4/EF-5 级破坏。美国国家气象局(NWS)EF/风速评级比 NWS 和 DOWs 记录的龙卷风低 1.2 到 1.5 个类别(约 20 m⋅s)。中值龙卷风直径为 250 至 500 m,有 10%至 15%大于 1 km。由于这里记录的风损风险增加,风工程龙卷风危害模型预测和建筑物抗风标准可能需要向上调整。