Xu Chengcheng, Lu Chuiyu, Wang Jianhua
School of Earth and Environment, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232001, China.
State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle Simulation and Regulation, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China.
Sci Rep. 2021 Mar 22;11(1):6516. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86118-0.
Water inflow forecast is influenced by many factors and yields uncertain results. To more accurately predict the magnitude of water inflow and quantitatively define the corresponding response in the parameter change interval, this study combined a non-probabilistic set theory and uncertainty analysis to derive an equation for the confined water inflow. Using mining area data and comparing the calculation of upper and lower boundary limits obtained by a Monte Carlo method, results of the confined water inflow equation were calculated with relative errors of 5% and 10%. When corresponding to the rate of change of the variable parameter, the results showed that under the same error conditions, the allowable rate of change when calculating the minimum value using Eq. A was greater than when using Eq. B, and the maximum value using Eq. B yielded a greater allowable rate of change than the maximum value calculated by Eq. A. Thus, the obtained rate of change for Eq. A is indicative of the lower limit, and Eq. B is conducive to the calculation of the upper limit of mine water inflow.
涌水量预测受多种因素影响，结果具有不确定性。为更准确地预测涌水量大小并定量确定参数变化区间内的相应响应，本研究结合非概率集理论和不确定性分析推导出承压水涌水量方程。利用矿区数据并比较蒙特卡罗方法得到的上下边界极限计算结果，承压水涌水量方程的计算结果相对误差为5%和10%。当对应可变参数的变化率时，结果表明在相同误差条件下，使用式A计算最小值时的允许变化率大于使用式B时的，使用式B计算最大值时的允许变化率大于式A计算的最大值时的。因此，式A得到的变化率表示下限，式B有利于计算矿井涌水量上限。
