A Powerful Nomogram Based on the Novel D-Index to Predict Prognosis After Surgical Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

PURPOSE

Conventional staging and scoring systems such as the Tumor, Node, and Metastasis; Cancer of the Liver Italian Program; Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer; and Okuda have failed to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with resected primary hepatocellular carcinoma. Thus, we aimed to establish a novel D-index and nomogram to improve prognostic accuracy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We selected 396 patients who underwent liver resection between January 2007 and February 2015 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. These patients were randomly divided into the training and validation groups in a ratio of 7:3.

RESULTS

We generated a nomogram using five independent risk factors, including the D-index (calculated by total bilirubin × tumor size/the ratio of fat-to-muscle area ) in the training set. The predictive performance of the nomogram was similar in both the training and validation cohorts according to the concordance index. The nomogram demonstrated the strongest predictive power for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS, with the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve being 0.8486, 0.7785, and 0.752, respectively. The calibration curves exhibited stable capabilities in both cohorts. The stratification of the Kaplan-Meier curve was significant (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The associated nomogram of the D-index demonstrated a powerful and accurate predictive ability for OS in patients with primary hepatocellular carcinoma.