Institute of Global Studies, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland.
Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 15;18(6):3002. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18063002.
The ongoing pandemic of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Infectious Disease-2019) was first reported at the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China. On 30 January 2020, the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency for the novel coronavirus. On 11 March 2020, the WHO officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic. Due to the differences in population distribution, economic structure, degree of damage and other factors, the affected countries have introduced policies tailored to local conditions as a response to the pandemic, leading to different economic and social impacts. Considering the highly heterogeneous spreading of COVID-19 across regions, this paper takes a specific country (China) as a case study of the spread of the disease and national intervention models for the COVID-19 pandemic. The research period of this article is from 17 December to 26 April 2020, because this time period basically covered the important time nodes of the epidemic in China from animal-to-human transmission, limited human-to-human transmission, epidemic to gradual control. This study is useful for comparing the effectiveness of different interventions at various stages of epidemic development within the same country and can also promote the comparison of the epidemic response interventions of different countries. Based on the conclusions of the model simulation, this article evaluates the dual impact of the epidemic on people's wellbeing and the economy.
COVID-19(新型冠状病毒肺炎)疫情于 2019 年底在中国武汉首次报告。2020 年 1 月 30 日,世界卫生组织宣布新型冠状病毒为公共卫生紧急事件。2020 年 3 月 11 日,世界卫生组织正式宣布 COVID-19 疫情为大流行。由于人口分布、经济结构、受损程度等因素的差异,受影响的国家根据当地情况推出了有针对性的政策,以应对疫情,导致了不同的经济和社会影响。考虑到 COVID-19 在不同地区的传播存在高度异质性,本文以一个特定国家(中国)为例,研究了疾病的传播和国家对 COVID-19 大流行的干预模式。本文的研究期为 2020 年 12 月 17 日至 4 月 26 日,因为这段时间基本涵盖了中国疫情从动物传人、有限人传人、疫情逐渐得到控制的重要时间节点。本研究有助于比较同一国家在疫情发展的不同阶段采取的不同干预措施的有效性,也可以促进不同国家对疫情应对干预措施的比较。基于模型模拟的结论,本文评估了疫情对人们的福祉和经济的双重影响。