School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 31;18(7):3623. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18073623.
Land-use change accounts for a large proportion of the carbon emissions produced each year, especially in highly developed urban agglomerations. In this study, we combined remote sensing data and socioeconomic data to estimate land-use-related carbon emissions, and applied the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to analyze its influencing factors, in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China in 1990-2015. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The total amount of land-use-related carbon emissions increased from 684.84 × 10 t C in 1990 to 11,444.98 × 10 t C in 2015, resulting in a net increase of 10,760.14 × 10 t (16.71 times). (2) Land-use-related carbon emissions presented a "higher in the middle and lower on both sides" spatial distribution. Guangzhou had the highest levels of carbon emissions, and Zhaoqing had the lowest; Shenzhen experienced the greatest net increase, and Jiangmen experienced the least. (3) The land-use-related carbon emissions intensity increased from 4795.76 × 10 Yuan/t C to 12,143.05 × 10 Yuan/t C in 1990-2015, with the greatest increase seen in Huizhou and the lowest in Zhongshan. Differences were also found in the spatial distribution, with higher intensities located in the south, lower intensities in the east and west, and medium intensities in the central region. (4) Land-use change, energy structure, energy efficiency, economic development, and population all contributed to increases in land-use-related carbon emissions. Land-use change, economic development and population made positive contributions, while energy efficiency and energy structure made negative contributions. At last, we put forward several suggestions for promoting low-carbon development, including development of a low-carbon and circular economy, rationally planning land-use structure, promoting reasonable population growth, improving energy efficiency and the energy consumption structure, and advocating low-carbon lifestyles. Our findings are useful in the tasks related to assessing carbon emissions from the perspective of land-use change and analyzing the associated influencing factors, as well as providing a reference for realizing low-carbon and sustainable development in the PRD.
土地利用变化导致每年产生的碳排放量占很大比例，特别是在高度发达的城市群中。本研究结合遥感数据和社会经济数据来估算土地利用相关的碳排放，并应用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法分析其影响因素，以中国珠江三角洲（PRD）为例，时间跨度为 1990 年至 2015 年。主要结论如下：（1）土地利用相关碳排放总量从 1990 年的 684.84×10tC 增加到 2015 年的 11444.98×10tC，净增 10760.14×10t（增长 16.71 倍）。（2）土地利用相关碳排放呈“中间高，两侧低”的空间分布格局。广州的碳排放量最高，肇庆的碳排放量最低；深圳的净增碳排放量最大，江门的净增碳排放量最小。（3）土地利用相关碳排放强度从 1990 年的 4795.76×10 元/tC 增加到 2015 年的 12143.05×10 元/tC，其中惠州的增长幅度最大，中山的增长幅度最小。空间分布也存在差异，南部地区的强度较高，东部和西部地区的强度较低，中部地区的强度居中。（4）土地利用变化、能源结构、能源效率、经济发展和人口增长均对土地利用相关碳排放的增加做出了贡献。土地利用变化、经济发展和人口增长均做出了正贡献，而能源效率和能源结构则做出了负贡献。最后，我们提出了促进低碳发展的几点建议，包括发展低碳循环经济、合理规划土地利用结构、促进合理的人口增长、提高能源效率和能源消费结构，以及倡导低碳生活方式。我们的研究结果有助于从土地利用变化的角度评估碳排放，并分析相关影响因素，为实现珠江三角洲地区的低碳和可持续发展提供参考。
