Sacks J J, Herndon J L, Lieb S H, Sorhage F E, McCaig L F, Withum D G
Division of Injury Epidemiology and Control, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30333.
Am J Public Health. 1988 Jul;78(7):806-8. doi: 10.2105/ajph.78.7.806.
In the two-week period November 13-27, 1984, 12 patients died in a 54-bed nursing home in Florida; based on previous mortality patterns, 2.5 deaths would have been expected for the whole month. There was no similar increase in deaths in November 1984 and no comparable monthly death rate for any of 69 nursing homes in the same county from 1976-84. Comparison of the 12 deaths in November with 28 deaths that occurred during the previous 10 months and with 31 surviving patients who were continuously present in the nursing home between November 12-28, 1984 revealed that the patients who died in November were more likely to have had onset of the terminal event during the night shift, had a recent visitor, and had an admitting diagnosis of organic brain syndrome. The abrupt increase in the death rate for November 1984 was not associated with a measurable change in population characteristics, an outbreak of infectious disease, or changes in procedures or the environment. Reviews of employee schedules revealed a consistent and strong association between the duty times of two nurses and the onsets of the terminal episode and the times of patient deaths. Continuing epidemiologic surveillance of adverse outcomes in nursing homes is recommended.
在1984年11月13日至27日的两周时间里,佛罗里达州一家拥有54张床位的养老院中有12名患者死亡;根据以往的死亡率模式,整个月预计死亡2.5人。1984年11月没有出现类似的死亡人数增加情况,并且在1976年至1984年期间,同一县的69家养老院中也没有与之可比的月死亡率。将11月的12例死亡病例与前10个月发生的28例死亡病例以及1984年11月12日至28日期间一直住在养老院的31名存活患者进行比较后发现,11月死亡的患者更有可能在夜班期间出现终末事件,近期有访客,并且入院诊断为器质性脑综合征。1984年11月死亡率的突然上升与人口特征的可测量变化、传染病暴发或程序或环境的变化无关。对员工排班的审查显示,两名护士的值班时间与终末事件的发作以及患者死亡时间之间存在一致且强烈的关联。建议对养老院中的不良后果持续进行流行病学监测。