School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK.
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Sci Rep. 2021 Apr 6;11(1):7530. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86869-w.
Globally, men have higher tuberculosis (TB) burden but the mechanisms underlying this sex disparity are not fully understood. Recent surveys of social mixing patterns have established moderate preferential within-sex mixing in many settings. This assortative mixing could amplify differences from other causes. We explored the impact of assortative mixing and factors differentially affecting disease progression and detection using a sex-stratified deterministic TB transmission model. We explored the influence of assortativity at disease-free and endemic equilibria, finding stronger effects during invasion and on increasing male:female prevalence (M:F) ratios than overall prevalence. Variance-based sensitivity analysis of endemic equilibria identified differential progression as the most important driver of M:F ratio uncertainty. We fitted our model to prevalence and notification data in exemplar settings within a fully Bayesian framework. For our high M:F setting, random mixing reduced equilibrium M:F ratios by 12% (95% CrI 0-30%). Equalizing male case detection there led to a 20% (95% CrI 11-31%) reduction in M:F ratio over 10 years-insufficient to eliminate sex disparities. However, this potentially achievable improvement was associated with a meaningful 8% (95% CrI 4-14%) reduction in total TB prevalence over this time frame.
全球范围内,男性结核病(TB)负担更高,但导致这种性别差异的机制尚不完全清楚。最近对社交混合模式的调查表明,在许多情况下,同性之间的混合存在适度的优先性。这种混合可能会放大其他原因造成的差异。我们使用性别分层确定性结核病传播模型,探讨了混合的趋同作用以及对疾病进展和检测有差异影响的因素。我们探讨了在无病和流行平衡时趋同作用的影响,发现其在入侵期间以及增加男性:女性流行率(M:F)比总体流行率的影响更强。对流行平衡的基于方差的敏感性分析确定了不同的进展是 M:F 比值不确定性的最重要驱动因素。我们在完全贝叶斯框架内,以范例环境中的流行率和通知数据拟合我们的模型。对于我们的高 M:F 环境,随机混合将平衡时的 M:F 比值降低了 12%(95%置信区间 0-30%)。在那里平等地检测男性病例,在 10 年内会导致 M:F 比值降低 20%(95%置信区间 11-31%)——不足以消除性别差距。然而,这种潜在的可实现的改善与在这段时间内总结核病流行率降低 8%(95%置信区间 4-14%)相关。