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基于 bootstrap 的腹主动脉瘤破裂风险预测的统计技术

Statistical techniques for predicting rupture risk in abdominal aortic aneurysms: A contribution based on bootstrap.

机构信息

Mechanical Engineering Division, CARTIF Technological Center, Valladolid, Boecillo, Spain.

Institute for Advanced Production Technologies (ITAP), University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain.

出版信息

Sci Prog. 2021 Apr-Jun;104(2):368504211003785. doi: 10.1177/00368504211003785.

DOI:10.1177/00368504211003785
PMID:33827352
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10454785/
Abstract

The morphometry of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) has been recognized as one of the main factors that may predispose them to rupture. The need to quantify the morphometry of AAA on a patient-specific basis constitutes a valuable tool for assisting in rupture risk prediction. Previous results of this research group have determined the correlations between hemodynamic stresses and aneurysm morphometry by means of the Pearson coefficient. The present work aims to find how the AAA morphology correlates with the hemodynamic stresses acting on the arterial wall. To do so, the potential of the bootstrap technique has been explored. Bootstrap works appropriately in applications where few data are available (13 patient-specific AAA models were simulated). The methodology developed can be considered a contribution to predicting the hemodynamic stresses from the size and shape indices. The present work explores the use of a specific statistical technique (the bootstrap technique) to predict, based on morphological correlations, the patient-specific aneurysm rupture risk, provide greater understanding of this complex phenomenon that can bring about improvements in the clinical management of aneurysmatic patients. The results obtained using the bootstrap technique have greater reliability and robustness than those obtained by regression analysis using the Pearson coefficient, thus allowing to obtain more reliable results from the characteristics of the samples used, such as their small size and high variability. Additionally, it could be an indicator that other indices, such as AAA length, deformation rate, saccular index, and asymmetry, are important.

摘要

腹主动脉瘤(AAA)的形态学已被认为是可能导致其破裂的主要因素之一。在个体化的基础上定量 AAA 的形态学特征是辅助预测破裂风险的有价值的工具。本研究组先前的研究结果通过皮尔逊系数确定了血流动力学应力与动脉瘤形态学之间的相关性。本研究旨在探讨 AAA 形态与作用于动脉壁的血流动力学应力之间的相关性。为此,探索了自举技术的潜力。自举技术在数据较少的应用中(模拟了 13 个个体化 AAA 模型)效果良好。所开发的方法可以被认为是从大小和形状指数预测血流动力学应力的一种贡献。本研究探索了使用特定的统计技术(自举技术)基于形态学相关性预测个体化动脉瘤破裂风险,从而更深入地了解这一复杂现象,这可以改善动脉瘤患者的临床管理。与使用皮尔逊系数进行回归分析相比,使用自举技术获得的结果具有更高的可靠性和稳健性,因此可以从所使用样本的特征中获得更可靠的结果,例如样本数量少且变异性高。此外,这可能表明其他指标(如 AAA 长度、变形率、囊状指数和不对称性)也很重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/64ae7af22c5a/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/af3836c39d71/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/bb618fdc04aa/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/71b5009cdbc5/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/64ae7af22c5a/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/af3836c39d71/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/bb618fdc04aa/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/71b5009cdbc5/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/712f/10454785/64ae7af22c5a/10.1177_00368504211003785-fig4.jpg

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