Willems J L, Pardaens J
Eur J Cardiol. 1977 Oct-Nov;6(3):229-43.
Reproducibility of the AVA program (version 3.5) was tested (1) by analyzing the same analog tracing 10 times in 150 patients, and (2) by studying the influence of 12 different sets of prior probabilities (PRP), using the digital data from a total of 2718 patients. The same QRS-T diagnosis plus or minus 8 percentage points was found in patients with high posterior probabilities. Variability for the P wave diagnosis was twice as high as for QRS-T results. Failure to select the appropriate set of PrP markedly influenced reproducibility. This was especially true for right ventricular hypertrophy and pulmonary emphysema. 'Mispriorizing' in a subgroup of 199 patients with well-documented myocardial infarction lowered the total number of correct ECG diagnoses on the average between 4.8 and 35%. These results are inherent to Bayes' theorem where PrP are used to achieve minimum assignment error in populations, but where Prp errors may result in wide classification discrepancies. Without errors in PrP reproducibility by the VA program was found to be very high.
对AVA程序（版本3.5）的可重复性进行了测试：（1）在150名患者中对同一模拟描记图进行10次分析；（2）使用总共2718名患者的数字数据，研究12组不同的先验概率（PRP）的影响。在后验概率较高的患者中，发现相同的QRS - T诊断结果的差异在正负8个百分点以内。P波诊断的变异性是QRS - T结果的两倍。未能选择合适的PrP集对可重复性有显著影响。对于右心室肥大和肺气肿尤其如此。在199名有充分记录的心肌梗死患者亚组中“错误设定先验概率”，平均使正确心电图诊断的总数降低了4.8%至35%。这些结果是贝叶斯定理所固有的，其中PrP用于在人群中实现最小分配误差，但PrP误差可能导致广泛的分类差异。如果PrP没有误差，VA程序的可重复性非常高。
