Managing fires in a changing world: Fuel and weather determine fire behavior and safety in the neotropical savannas.

Fire is an important ecological disturbance, but anthropogenic wildfires increasingly threaten native ecosystems and human lives. In fire-prone ecosystems, zero-fire policies have been replaced by active fire management to reduce the risk of wildfires and improve ecological outcomes. The environmental drivers of fire behavior are widely known, but climate change and deforestation are changing their roles, making fires less predictable. Thus, reassessing the main determinants of fire behavior is preeminent to allow for safe and adaptive uses of fire in protected areas (PA). We did this research in collaboration with PA managers during the initial implementation of a pilot Integrated Fire Management (IFM) program in the Brazilian savanna. The program mainly aimed to prevent large wildfires in the late-dry season and included prescribed burns during the rainy, early- and mid-dry seasons to create vegetation patch mosaics with different fire histories. We assessed fire behavior and its environmental drivers during prescribed fires in the mid-dry season (MF) and experimental late-dry season fires (LF) (emulating wildfires). We applied Linear Models to test for differences in fire intensity, heat released, combustion factor and flame height between fire seasons and to check the influence of meteorological and fuel conditions in these parameters. LF had a significantly higher fire intensity (3508 vs. 895 kW m), heat released (5537 vs. 3329 kW m), combustion factor (90 vs. 51%) and flame height (2.5 vs. 1.9 m) than MF. Relative humidity, air temperature, wind speed and fuel load were the best predictors of fire behavior, corroborating previous research. Air temperature and relative humidity pushed the seasonal differences in fire behavior while wind speed and fuel load showed similar effects across seasons. Our results emphasize the importance of considering primarily environmental variables during fire management planning, especially in the current climate changing world where extreme events and seasonal weather fluctuations are constantly defying our knowledge about fire behavior.