Abdullah Milad, Kolo Kamal, Aspoukeh Peyman, Hamad Rahel, Bailey James R
Scientific Research Centre, Soran University, Soran, Iraq.
Department of Economics, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, United States.
J Infect Dev Ctries. 2021 Mar 31;15(3):370-381. doi: 10.3855/jidc.13993.
Since the first published cases of the Coronavirus disease known as COVID-19 in the city of Wuhan Hubei Province in China, up until to the time of preparation of this report in mid-September 2020, more than 30 million people have been infected all over the world. In March 2020, more than 300,000 cases have been reported all over Iraq. This study aims to represent data analysis, modelling and forecasting approaches to the presented data in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
The project involves mathematical models for forecasting and artificial simulations using particles. In the study, time series models including Simple Exponential Model, Holt's Method and Brown's Models have been used for the forecasting of the future potential rates in the area. A series of simulations have been conducted to observe the possibilities of virus spread rates in a virtual world which represents a quarter of Erbil.
The outcome of the study shows how the disease have spread in Kurdistan, and what are the current rates to compare with neighbour regions. The modelling clearly shows that with cases still sporadically appearing, the risk of second and third waves of infections is high.
Therefore, the regional government must reduce unnecessary gatherings to the lowest possible level. A scientific registry system of disease statistics must be put in place and rigorously updated all the times. We recommend the officials use a nationwide database provided to the public to monitor movement of every infected individual, to prevent further spread.
自中国湖北省武汉市首次公布新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID - 19）病例以来，截至2020年9月中旬本报告撰写之时，全球已有超过3000万人感染。2020年3月，伊拉克全国报告了超过30万例病例。本研究旨在对伊拉克库尔德地区所呈现的数据进行数据分析、建模和预测。
该项目涉及用于预测的数学模型和使用粒子的人工模拟。在研究中，包括简单指数模型、霍尔特方法和布朗模型在内的时间序列模型已被用于预测该地区未来的潜在发病率。进行了一系列模拟，以观察在一个虚拟世界中病毒传播率的可能性，该虚拟世界代表埃尔比勒的四分之一区域。
研究结果表明了该疾病在库尔德地区的传播情况，以及与周边地区相比的当前发病率。建模清楚地表明，由于病例仍时有出现，第二波和第三波感染的风险很高。
因此，地区政府必须将不必要的集会降至最低水平。必须建立一个科学的疾病统计登记系统，并随时严格更新。我们建议官员们使用向公众提供的全国性数据库来监测每一个感染者的行动，以防止进一步传播。
