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整合生物物理和社会经济潜力知识，绘制埃塞俄比亚未来牛奶生产的集群图。

Integrating knowledge on biophysical and socioeconomic potential to map clusters for future milk production in Ethiopia.

机构信息

Wageningen Livestock Research, Wageningen University and Research, PO Box 338, 6700, Wageningen, AH, Netherlands.

Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.

出版信息

Trop Anim Health Prod. 2021 Apr 13;53(2):258. doi: 10.1007/s11250-021-02695-2.

DOI:10.1007/s11250-021-02695-2
PMID:33847844
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8043898/
Abstract

Despite growing milk demand and imports, market-oriented milk production and formal processing in Ethiopia is limited to areas around Addis Ababa, notwithstanding its competing land use demand. This study assessed biophysical and market potential for developing the dairy sector, characterizing Ethiopian dairy clusters. Biophysical data from geographic information system (GIS) sources and information from key informants were combined in mapping and ranking these clusters on milk production potential. Twenty-four indicators in six major categories were applied for this assessment: feed availability, environmental conditions for dairy cattle, current production status, access to inputs and services, output market access, and production expansion potential. Feed availability (fodder, crop residues, and agro-industrial by-products as well as land availability and affordability) were the main drivers for dairy development, followed by the current production status, mainly driven by number of (improved) dairy cattle and (formal) milk volumes. Dairy clusters close to Addis Ababa had the highest overall scores for development potential, mainly determined by local demand and access to inputs. For dairy sustainable dairy development in Ethiopia, companies seeking long-term opportunities may avoid the Addis Ababa area and develop dairy production and processing in other clusters especially in Amhara and Tigray regions, with good milk production potential but less developed market infrastructure. The combination of biophysical data and key informant knowledge offered key strengths in delivering valuable results within a short time span. It however requires a careful selection of knowledgeable key informants whose expertise cover a broad scope of the dairy value chain.

摘要

尽管牛奶需求和进口量不断增长，但埃塞俄比亚以市场为导向的牛奶生产和正规加工仅限于亚的斯亚贝巴周边地区，尽管存在土地使用竞争需求。本研究评估了发展乳业的生物物理和市场潜力，对埃塞俄比亚乳业集群进行了特征描述。通过地理信息系统（GIS）来源的生物物理数据和关键信息来源，对这些集群的牛奶生产潜力进行了绘图和排名。在评估中应用了六大类 24 项指标：饲料供应、奶牛养殖环境条件、当前生产状况、投入品和服务的获取情况、产出市场准入以及生产扩张潜力。饲料供应（饲料、农作物残余物和农业工业副产品以及土地的可获得性和可负担性）是发展乳业的主要驱动力，其次是当前的生产状况，主要由（改良）奶牛数量和（正规）牛奶产量驱动。靠近亚的斯亚贝巴的乳业集群具有最高的发展潜力综合评分，主要由当地需求和投入品获取情况决定。对于埃塞俄比亚的可持续乳业发展，寻求长期机会的公司可能会避开亚的斯亚贝巴地区，在其他集群，特别是阿姆哈拉和提格雷地区发展乳业生产和加工，这些地区牛奶生产潜力良好，但市场基础设施欠发达。生物物理数据和关键信息来源的结合在短时间内提供了有价值的结果，具有重要优势。然而，这需要仔细选择知识渊博的关键信息来源，其专业知识涵盖乳业价值链的广泛范围。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a00b/8043898/10d3a1f03733/11250_2021_2695_Fig9_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a00b/8043898/48eb2cbb9058/11250_2021_2695_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a00b/8043898/103942afd9f3/11250_2021_2695_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a00b/8043898/96580720227f/11250_2021_2695_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a00b/8043898/3d2cd1b1e6ff/11250_2021_2695_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a00b/8043898/8f4f21c3338e/11250_2021_2695_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a00b/8043898/10d3a1f03733/11250_2021_2695_Fig9_HTML.jpg

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