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基于蒙特卡罗模拟和生物毒性的道路灰尘中重金属(HMs)健康风险评估:以中国郑州为例。

The health risk assessment of Heavy Metals (HMs) in road dust based on Monte Carlo simulation and bio-toxicity: a case study in Zhengzhou, China.

机构信息

College of Environmental Engineering, Henan University of Technology, Lianhua Street 100, Zhengzhou, 450001, China.

出版信息

Environ Geochem Health. 2021 Dec;43(12):5135-5156. doi: 10.1007/s10653-021-00922-1. Epub 2021 Apr 13.

DOI:10.1007/s10653-021-00922-1
PMID:33847866
Abstract

Heavy metals (HMs) in road dust pose a significant threat to human health. The analysis of human health risks of HMs is an important theoretical basis for risk screening and management. The chemical forms and characteristics of HMs in road dust were analyzed. Based on the bio-toxicity of the different fractions of the HMs and Monte Carlo, three assessment models, including the health risk assessment based on bio-toxicity, the health risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo simulation, and the health risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo simulation and bio-toxicity, were established. Under the Traditional Model, the non-carcinogenic risks were only harmful to children, while the carcinogenic risks were not harmful to adults and children. Under the M-Traditional Model, the probability of non-carcinogenic risks being harmful to children's health was 83.17%. The probability that carcinogenic risks pose a threat to children's health was 28.61%. Considering the bio-toxicity of HMs in different chemical forms, non-carcinogenic risks and carcinogenic risks under the B-Traditional Model were all less than the corresponding critical values, indicating that the HMs in the road dust did no harm to both the adults and children. Based on the MB-Traditional Model, the chance of non-carcinogenic risks being harmful to children's health is 15.43%. Among different HMs, the non-carcinogenic risks of As are highest and the carcinogenic risks of Cr were the highest, so As and Cr should be listed as priority control contamination. MB-Traditional Model established in this study simultaneously considered bio-toxicity and random simulation and obtained more accurate results, which could provide a theoretical basis for risk analysis and management.

摘要

道路灰尘中的重金属(HMs)对人类健康构成重大威胁。分析 HMs 对人类健康的风险是进行风险筛选和管理的重要理论基础。本研究分析了道路灰尘中 HMs 的化学形态和特征。基于 HMs 不同形态的生物毒性和蒙特卡罗模拟,建立了基于生物毒性的健康风险评估、基于蒙特卡罗模拟的健康风险评估和基于蒙特卡罗模拟和生物毒性的健康风险评估三种评估模型。在传统模型下,非致癌风险仅对儿童有害,而致癌风险对成人和儿童均无害。在 M-传统模型下,儿童健康受到非致癌风险危害的概率为 83.17%。儿童健康受到致癌风险威胁的概率为 28.61%。考虑到不同化学形态的 HMs 的生物毒性,B-传统模型下的非致癌风险和致癌风险均低于相应的临界值,表明道路灰尘中的 HMs 对成人和儿童均无害。在 MB-传统模型下,儿童健康受到非致癌风险危害的概率为 15.43%。在不同的 HMs 中,As 的非致癌风险最高,Cr 的致癌风险最高,因此 As 和 Cr 应被列为优先控制的污染物质。本研究建立的 MB-传统模型同时考虑了生物毒性和随机模拟,获得了更准确的结果,可为风险分析和管理提供理论依据。

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