Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, United States of America.
Department of Higher Education and Student Affairs, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Apr 16;16(4):e0249811. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249811. eCollection 2021.
In Appalachia, La Crosse virus (LACV) is a leading pediatric arbovirus and public health concern for children under 16 years. LACV is transmitted via the bite of an infected Aedes mosquito. Thus, it is imperative to understand the dynamics of the local vector population in order to assess risk and transmission. Using entomological data collected from Knox County, Tennessee in 2013, we formulate an environmentally-driven system of ordinary differential equations to model mosquito population dynamics over a single season. Further, we include infected compartments to represent LACV transmission within the mosquito population. Findings suggest that the model, with dependence on degree days and accumulated precipitation, can closely describe field data. This model confirms the need to include these environmental variables when planning control strategies.
在美国阿巴拉契亚地区，拉科斯特病毒（LACV）是一种主要的小儿虫媒病毒，也是 16 岁以下儿童的公共卫生关注重点。LACV 通过受感染的伊蚊叮咬传播。因此，了解当地媒介种群的动态对于评估风险和传播至关重要。我们利用 2013 年在田纳西州诺克斯县收集的昆虫学数据，建立了一个环境驱动的常微分方程系统，以在单个季节内对蚊子种群动态进行建模。此外，我们还包含了受感染的蚊群来代表 LACV 在蚊子种群中的传播。研究结果表明，该模型依赖于度日数和累计降水量，可以很好地描述实地数据。该模型证实了在制定控制策略时需要考虑这些环境变量。
