Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA; Virginia Tech Transportation Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA; Virginia Tech Transportation Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2021 Jun;156:106088. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106088. Epub 2021 Apr 16.
Accurate prediction of driving risk is challenging due to the rarity of crashes and individual driver heterogeneity. One promising direction of tackling this challenge is to take advantage of telematics data, increasingly available from connected vehicle technology, to obtain dense risk predictors. In this work, we propose a decision-adjusted framework to develop optimal driver risk prediction models using telematics-based driving behavior information. We apply the proposed framework to identify the optimal threshold values for elevated longitudinal acceleration (ACC), deceleration (DEC), lateral acceleration (LAT), and other model parameters for predicting driver risk. The Second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) naturalistic driving data were used with the decision rule of identifying the top 1% to 20% of the riskiest drivers. The results show that the decision-adjusted model improves prediction precision by 6.3% to 26.1% compared to a baseline model using non-telematics predictors. The proposed model is superior to models based on a receiver operating characteristic curve criterion, with 5.3% and 31.8% improvement in prediction precision. The results confirm that the optimal thresholds for ACC, DEC and LAT are sensitive to the decision rules, especially when predicting a small percentage of high-risk drivers. This study demonstrates the value of kinematic driving behavior in crash risk prediction and the necessity for a systematic approach for extracting prediction features. The proposed method can benefit broad applications, including fleet safety management, use-based insurance, driver behavior intervention, as well as connected-vehicle safety technology development.
由于事故的罕见性和驾驶员个体的异质性,准确预测驾驶风险具有挑战性。解决这一挑战的一个有前途的方向是利用日益普及的车联网技术获取的远程信息处理数据,以获得密集的风险预测指标。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个决策调整框架,利用基于远程信息处理的驾驶行为信息来开发最佳驾驶员风险预测模型。我们应用所提出的框架来确定用于预测驾驶员风险的纵向加速度(ACC)、减速(DEC)、横向加速度(LAT)和其他模型参数的最佳阈值。使用决策规则识别风险最高的前 1%至 20%的驾驶员,使用第二战略公路研究计划(SHRP 2)自然驾驶数据。结果表明,与使用非远程信息处理预测因子的基线模型相比,决策调整模型将预测精度提高了 6.3%至 26.1%。所提出的模型优于基于接收者操作特征曲线准则的模型,预测精度提高了 5.3%和 31.8%。结果证实,ACC、DEC 和 LAT 的最佳阈值对决策规则敏感,尤其是在预测小比例的高风险驾驶员时。本研究证实了运动学驾驶行为在碰撞风险预测中的价值,以及提取预测特征的系统方法的必要性。所提出的方法可以广泛应用,包括车队安全管理、基于使用的保险、驾驶员行为干预以及车联网安全技术开发。